← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did -16.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-16.8 pts
Called / graded
2/6
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$1.20M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$55k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? at 66¢) and the edge is -26.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 11% · n=2
20–40¢
0% vs 28% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 66% · n=1
80–100¢
50% vs 92% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$24.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $11.85M volume · 12,392 trades · since Oct 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$306.1k
Open P&L · 107 positions
−$127.1k
Closed-position win rate
73%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
369d
501 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 1 | 2.1 | -21.2 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.1 pts |
History
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x1604b15af9eab550175b268dd574a155c5ebff0e"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x1604b15af9eab550175b268dd574a155c5ebff0e.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1604b1…