← Wallets
+$13.5kNo · avg 77¢ → 94.5¢ · $73.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$899No · avg 89¢ → 95.1¢ · $13.3k+$476No · avg 89¢ → 94.5¢ · $7,705−$25Yes · avg 25¢ → 22¢ · $225
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -1.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.8 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$258.8k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$151.2k
Last 30 days +$2,046 · $19.13M volume · 26,035 trades · since May 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$562.5k
Open P&L · 26 positions
+$14.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
523d
1403 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | -1.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $26.3k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $18.6k | missed |
 Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.5k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ | $25.7k | called |
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $45.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
 Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
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