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Trump2028

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 13. The prices it paid implied about 12.1 wins, so it did +6.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +5.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+$49.0kNo · avg 63¢ → 88¢ · $167.4k · 1 proven with, 0 againstUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?+$1,294No · avg 97.3¢ → 98.7¢ · $90.5kClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+$1,397No · avg 92¢ → 96.7¢ · $29.0kUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?+$817No · avg 84¢ → 86¢ · $29.0kSenate control favorite on November 2?−$52Democratic Party · avg 98.4¢ → 97.9¢ · $10.3k Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?+$378No · avg 86¢ → 89¢ · $10.1kWill the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?+$63No · avg 95.1¢ → 96¢ · $6,405Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?+$40Yes · avg 95.1¢ → 95.7¢ · $6,379
Price-adjusted edge
+6.8 pts
Called / graded
13/13
Expected from price
12.1
Flagged volume
$3.05M
Sample size13 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.9 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$22k
13 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
$0$22k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? at 82¢) and the edge is +5.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=13
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$417.2k
Last 30 days +$36.8k · $25.64M volume · 16,217 trades · since Nov 14, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$605.4k
Open P&L · 74 positions
−$48.3k
Closed-position win rate
87%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
709d
522 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics110.9+5.4 pts
Other111110.2+7.1 pts
Economy111.0+4.8 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $26.6k99% 36d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $40.3k100% 53d agoexcluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $109.3k
3.7× usual
99% 65d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $22.2k89% 68d agocalled
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $34.0k99% 69d agoexcluded
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $15.0k98% 72d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $78.1k
2.6× usual
98% 72d agoexcluded
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $12.5k100% 80d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ $10.6k97% 81d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $46.1k97% 82d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $34.0k98% 82d agoexcluded
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $61.6k
2.1× usual
98% 83d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $25.0k0% 86d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $14.3k98% 96d agoexcluded
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $31.9k95% 103d agocalled
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $12.4k92% 105d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $20.0k96% 106d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $15.2k94% 109d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $20.7k100% 111d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $17.9k99% 118d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $68.9k
2.3× usual
99% 118d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $14.3k97% 123d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $37.3k93% 126d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $97.2k
3.3× usual
100% 130d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $196.9k
6.6× usual
100% 143d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $191.0k
6.4× usual
100% 146d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $10.1k99% 150d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $58.2k0% 153d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $24.3k1% 159d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $47.6k95% 161d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $23.5k96% 161d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED BUY No @ 97¢ $32.0k97% 173d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $19.7k82% 173d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k0% 173d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $14.1k97% 175d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $167.0k
5.6× usual
99% 178d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $19.9k93% 178d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $15.5k93% 180d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ $147.0k
4.9× usual
0% 181d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $23.0k100% 181d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $10.1k99% 182d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $48.0k98% 183d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $65.4k
2.2× usual
1% 184d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $68.7k
2.3× usual
98% 199d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $38.0k98% 206d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $99.9k
3.4× usual
100% 206d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $87.7k
3.0× usual
99% 216d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $22.1k99% 233d agoexcluded
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $128.0k
4.3× usual
100% 234d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $11.9k100% 244d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $23.6k0% 244d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $45.6k0% 246d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $14.3k98% 248d agoexcluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $28.3k100% 252d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $45.7k99% 255d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $23.6k99% 255d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $12.5k98% 255d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ $29.7k99% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $39.0k100% 266d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $25.9k100% 267d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.2¢ $12.9k95% 283d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $89.9k
3.0× usual
0% 297d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $14.2k98% 306d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $32.6k98% 315d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $78.6k
2.6× usual
97% 318d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.8¢ $33.2k97% 354d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.6¢ $17.7k95% 364d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$26.6k
LOW Trump2028 · 36d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$40.3k
LOW Trump2028 · 53d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$109.3k
LOW Trump2028 · 65d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?called
BUY No @ 89¢$22.2k
LOW Trump2028 · 68d ago
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$34.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 69d ago
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$15.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 72d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
BUY No @ 97.6¢$78.1k
LOW Trump2028 · 72d ago
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$12.5k
LOW Trump2028 · 80d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
BUY No @ 97.3¢$10.6k
LOW Trump2028 · 81d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
BUY No @ 97.4¢$46.1k
LOW Trump2028 · 82d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$34.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 82d ago
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$61.6k
LOW Trump2028 · 83d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$25.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 86d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$14.3k
LOW Trump2028 · 96d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?called
BUY No @ 95¢$31.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 103d ago
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?called
BUY No @ 92¢$12.4k
LOW Trump2028 · 105d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
BUY No @ 96¢$20.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 106d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
BUY No @ 94¢$15.2k
LOW Trump2028 · 109d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$20.7k
LOW Trump2028 · 111d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
BUY No @ 99.1¢$17.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 118d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$68.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 118d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 96.8¢$14.3k
LOW Trump2028 · 123d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 93¢$37.3k
LOW Trump2028 · 126d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$97.2k
LOW Trump2028 · 130d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$196.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 143d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$191.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 146d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$10.1k
LOW Trump2028 · 150d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$58.2k
LOW Trump2028 · 153d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.6¢$24.3k
LOW Trump2028 · 159d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?called
BUY No @ 95¢$47.6k
LOW Trump2028 · 161d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 96.5¢$23.5k
LOW Trump2028 · 161d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?called
BUY No @ 97¢$32.0k
MED Trump2028 · 173d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 82¢$19.7k
LOW Trump2028 · 173d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 173d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
BUY No @ 97.4¢$14.1k
LOW Trump2028 · 175d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$167.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 178d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?called
BUY No @ 93¢$19.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 178d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?called
BUY No @ 93¢$15.5k
LOW Trump2028 · 180d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$147.0k
MED Trump2028 · 181d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$23.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 181d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$10.1k
LOW Trump2028 · 182d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$48.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 183d ago
Netanyahu out by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$65.4k
LOW Trump2028 · 184d ago
Netanyahu out by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$68.7k
LOW Trump2028 · 199d ago
Netanyahu out by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$38.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 206d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$99.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 206d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$87.7k
LOW Trump2028 · 216d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$22.1k
LOW Trump2028 · 233d ago
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$128.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 234d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$11.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 244d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$23.6k
LOW Trump2028 · 244d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$45.6k
LOW Trump2028 · 246d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$14.3k
LOW Trump2028 · 248d ago
Government shutdown on Saturday?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$28.3k
LOW Trump2028 · 252d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$45.7k
LOW Trump2028 · 255d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$23.6k
LOW Trump2028 · 255d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$12.5k
LOW Trump2028 · 255d ago
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.1¢$29.7k
LOW Trump2028 · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$39.0k
LOW Trump2028 · 266d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$25.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 267d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 95.2¢$12.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 283d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$89.9k
LOW Trump2028 · 297d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$14.2k
LOW Trump2028 · 306d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$32.6k
LOW Trump2028 · 315d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 97¢$78.6k
LOW Trump2028 · 318d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 96.8¢$33.2k
LOW Trump2028 · 354d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 94.6¢$17.7k
LOW Trump2028 · 364d ago

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