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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 30. The prices it paid implied about 14.9 wins, so it did -23.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's a losing record: -23.0 pts vs the price over 30 bets. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-23.0 pts
Called / graded
8/30
Expected from price
14.9
Flagged volume
$1.63M
Sample size30 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$539k30 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22? at 44¢) and the edge is -25.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
28% vs 49% · n=29
60–80¢
0% vs 63% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.90M
Last 30 days −$371.4k · $25.17M volume · 34,767 trades · since Mar 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4.82M
Open P&L · 153 positions
−$6.65M
Closed-position win rate
92%
139 closed
Wallet age · markets
227d
292 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 30 | 8 | 14.9 | -23.0 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4d3079…