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What this means. A wallet put $110.2k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 45% chance. It won. This wallet has a losing record: -23.0 pts vs the price over 30 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$110.2k
BUY Yes @ 45¢ · 245,000 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100k2 fills in 1h2.7× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet gransaaa took Yes (buy) for $110.2k at an average 45¢. At that price the market implied a 45% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $110.2k+2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 45¢ means
45%chance the market gave
+122American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 45¢
- Implied odds
- 45.0%
- As American odds
- +122 no vig
- Size
- $110.2k
- Placed
- Sep 13, 00:16 EDT
- Market close
- Sep 13, 11:30 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- gransaaa
- Tx
- 0xb705b034…
This wallet's graded record
8/30-23.0 pts
expected 14.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +55 ptsYes price · entry 45¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $28.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | MED SELL Yes @ 89¢ | $31.2k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 60¢ | $18.1k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 50¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $12.3k | excluded |