← Wallets
+$5,274No · avg 88¢ → 97.8¢ · $51.9k+$3,753Yes · avg 54¢ → 68¢ · $18.2k+$180Yes · avg 79¢ → 80¢ · $18.1k+$681Yes · avg 63¢ → 66¢ · $13.0k · 2 proven with, 0 against+$2,497Yes · avg 72¢ → 93.5¢ · $10.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$580Yes · avg 66¢ → 70¢ · $9,927−$5,203Yamal · avg 41¢ → 24¢ · $7,007+$693No · avg 82¢ → 94¢ · $5,432
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did -41.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-41.8 pts
Called / graded
0/7
Expected from price
2.9
Flagged volume
$1.17M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$216k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 11¢) and the edge is -46.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 11% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 21% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 47% · n=4
60–80¢
0% vs 72% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$3.72M
Last 30 days −$713.4k · $128.75M volume · 776,675 trades · since Jul 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.26M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$13.5k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
107d
160738 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 0 | 2.0 | -39.9 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -46.5 pts |
History
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