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+$6,255Yes · avg 7¢ → 11¢ · $16.0k−$9,147Yes · avg 16¢ → 6.5¢ · $6,567−$5,217No · avg 22¢ → 2.5¢ · $683
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.2 wins, so it did -44.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-44.9 pts
Called / graded
0/5
Expected from price
2.2
Flagged volume
$1.15M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$126k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? at 20¢) and the edge is -51.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 20% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 40% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 50% · n=2
60–80¢
0% vs 65% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$449.4k
Last 30 days −$16.7k · $13.09M volume · 2,386 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$750.1k
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$30.0k
Closed-position win rate
65%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
272d
991 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | -61.9 pts |
| Other | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | -33.6 pts |
History
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