← Wallets
+$682No · avg 94.5¢ → 95.2¢ · $94.7k+$1,151No · avg 95.8¢ → 97.3¢ · $74.6k−$14.6kYes · avg 18¢ → 8.5¢ · $12.8k−$12.3kNo · avg 17¢ → 8.5¢ · $11.8k−$5,946Yes · avg 55¢ → 32¢ · $8,710−$5,585No · avg 54¢ → 32¢ · $8,472 · 0 proven with, 1 against−$18.2kNo · avg 90.3¢ → 26¢ · $7,431+$2,049Yes · avg 3¢ → 27¢ · $2,308
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advanceexcluded
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 28 of 55. The prices it paid implied about 36.8 wins, so it did -16.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's a losing record: -16.0 pts vs the price over 55 bets. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-16.0 pts
Called / graded
28/55
Expected from price
36.8
Flagged volume
$11.27M
Sample size55 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$261k55 graded bets in the order they resolved · 28 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers at 50¢) and the edge is -17.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
32% vs 53% · n=22
60–80¢
45% vs 69% · n=20
80–100¢
92% vs 88% · n=13
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$10.60M
Last 30 days −$794.5k · $383.98M volume · 1,778,397 trades · since Apr 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$33.96M
Open P&L · 40 positions
−$52.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
183d
28319 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 51 | 25 | 33.9 | -17.4 pts |
| Other | 4 | 3 | 2.9 | +2.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOW BUY Rockets @ 77¢ | $48.1k 2.1× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY Steelers @ 59¢ | $17.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Eagles @ 48¢ | $23.6k | excluded | |
| HIGH BUY No @ 56¢ | $257.5k 11.4× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 49¢ | $23.6k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Falcons @ 32¢ | $58.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $12.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Washington Nationals @ 39¢ | $14.2k | excluded | |
| HIGH BUY Colts @ 31¢ | $251.1k 11.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Eagles @ 77¢ | $42.3k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Bengals @ 45¢ | $42.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Falcons @ 37¢ | $10.6k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Vikings @ 35¢ | $42.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Jets @ 45¢ | $34.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Bills @ 68¢ | $11.8k | called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $53.9k 2.4× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $45.8k 2.0× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $18.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $23.8k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $10.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $13.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Aryna Sabalenka @ 74¢ | $15.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $12.1k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 71¢ | $27.9k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Spain @ 85¢ | $49.3k 2.2× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Argentina @ 39¢ | $11.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY France @ 70¢ | $52.3k 2.3× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $101.8k 4.5× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $33.3k | missed | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $157.2k 6.9× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $23.4k | called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $11.2k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Argentina @ 93.2¢ | $11.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $11.6k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 58¢ | $57.9k 2.6× usual |
missed | |
| MED SELL Yes @ 58¢ | $181.3k 8.0× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $23.8k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $10.3k | called | |
| LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $19.5k | missed | |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $107.8k 4.8× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY England @ 90¢ | $71.0k 3.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY England @ 62¢ | $32.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $11.9k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ | $26.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ | $17.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ | $15.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Over @ 48¢ | $32.5k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $29.4k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $27.2k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $50.2k 2.2× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $204.2k 9.0× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Egypt @ 84¢ | $30.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Argentina @ 87¢ | $11.3k | excluded | |
| MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $120.6k 5.3× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $36.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Egypt @ 15¢ | $14.2k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $21.3k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $15.2k | called | |
| LOW BUY Under @ 95¢ | $29.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Mexico @ 50¢ | $23.6k | missed | |
| MED BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $87.9k 3.9× usual |
missed | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $35.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $10.1k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $71.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Argentina @ 80¢ | $24.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $24.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $10.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 93.6¢ | $18.8k | called | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $298.5k 13.2× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Under @ 71¢ | $17.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $20.0k | missed | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $101.9k 4.5× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ | $17.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $30.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $11.7k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $11.6k | called | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $53.6k 2.4× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $15.2k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $13.5k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $10.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $24.2k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $10.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $14.8k | missed | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $174.8k 7.7× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $14.5k | called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $18.5k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $40.6k | excluded | |
| MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $564.4k 24.9× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $18.4k | called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $10.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $94.4k 4.2× usual |
called | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $75.9k 3.3× usual |
called | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $88.5k 3.9× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $24.8k | excluded | |
| MED SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $88.0k 3.9× usual |
called | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $151.3k 6.7× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $58.7k 2.6× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $31.7k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $18.0k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $32.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $14.5k | called | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $26.0k | called | |
| LOW BUY Over @ 77¢ | $14.1k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL Spain @ 55¢ | $12.8k | excluded | |
| HIGH BUY Spain @ 56¢ | $268.2k 11.8× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $17.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $10.5k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ | $16.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $18.8k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $10.6k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $11.6k | missed | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $51.4k 2.3× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $17.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $13.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $14.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY T1 @ 52¢ | $18.8k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $20.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $10.9k | missed | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 63¢ | $26.0k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $88.1k 3.9× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 60¢ | $10.1k | called | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 38¢ | $10.0k | called | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 47¢ | $10.1k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 35¢ | $10.5k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Knicks @ 64¢ | $100.5k 4.4× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 47¢ | $56.2k 2.5× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 67¢ | $18.2k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $29.9k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 46¢ | $17.9k | called | |
| MED BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $41.9k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 46¢ | $10.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 63¢ | $15.8k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $94.5k 4.2× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 73¢ | $18.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $14.5k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 88¢ | $10.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $22.0k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $33.1k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $15.5k | missed | |
| HIGH BUY Spurs @ 44¢ | $353.5k 15.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 54¢ | $27.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 58¢ | $11.8k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $14.1k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $13.0k | called | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 20¢ | $10.3k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $29.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 41¢ | $59.4k 2.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 60¢ | $13.9k | excluded | |
| MED SELL No @ 71¢ | $38.9k | called | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 41¢ | $25.0k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 40¢ | $14.7k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 38¢ | $12.3k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 88¢ | $13.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 63¢ | $79.3k 3.5× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 86¢ | $13.4k | excluded | |
| HIGH BUY Spurs @ 55¢ | $421.6k 18.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 55¢ | $11.2k | missed | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 54¢ | $122.8k 5.4× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 94¢ | $15.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 66¢ | $18.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 47¢ | $27.7k | called | |
| HIGH BUY Cavaliers @ 32¢ | $117.1k 5.2× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $10.1k | missed | |
| HIGH BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $491.6k 21.7× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $13.7k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $16.0k | missed | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $85.2k 3.8× usual |
excluded | |
| MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $154.4k 6.8× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $108.2k 4.8× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $45.9k 2.0× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $16.2k | called | |
| LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 61¢ | $10.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Pistons @ 48¢ | $25.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 52¢ | $23.2k | called | |
| LOW BUY Pistons @ 62¢ | $21.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 22¢ | $13.2k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Thunder @ 83¢ | $56.2k 2.5× usual |
called | |
| MED BUY Avalanche @ 57¢ | $69.5k 3.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 95.4¢ | $44.7k | called | |
| MED BUY No @ 87¢ | $47.3k 2.1× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢ | $21.4k | called | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 82¢ | $10.9k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $16.1k | missed | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $107.7k 4.8× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $15.7k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL No @ 57¢ | $11.7k | missed | |
| LOW BUY 76ers @ 59¢ | $16.7k | missed | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.3k 4.4× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 48¢ | $15.8k | called | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 88¢ | $45.8k 2.0× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 90.8¢ | $20.9k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 79¢ | $11.5k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $16.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $15.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 50¢ | $10.6k | called | |
| LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 78¢ | $11.3k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Cavaliers @ 74¢ | $92.4k 4.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 82¢ | $18.9k | missed | |
| LOW BUY 76ers @ 40¢ | $17.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY 76ers @ 30¢ | $14.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Celtics @ 72¢ | $13.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY 76ers @ 49¢ | $28.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Lakers @ 40¢ | $17.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $14.7k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $77.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Rockets @ 62¢ | $62.5k 2.8× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY Lakers @ 60¢ | $21.2k | excluded | |
| MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ | $28.9k | missed | |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $22.0k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad @ 99.9¢ | $41.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Lakers @ 62¢ | $63.1k 2.8× usual |
excluded | |
| MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ | $27.2k | missed | |
| MED SELL No @ 96.7¢ | $37.1k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $22.7k | called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $15.9k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 70¢ | $13.6k | called | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 32¢ | $25.0k | missed | |
| MED BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $86.0k 3.8× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 19¢ | $18.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Pistons @ 60¢ | $17.7k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Pistons @ 60¢ | $53.2k 2.3× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY Pistons @ 59¢ | $20.9k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $30.7k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ | $12.2k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Lakers @ 44¢ | $25.7k | missed | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 71¢ | $147.3k 6.5× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Nuggets @ 49¢ | $58.7k 2.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW SELL Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $131.8k 5.8× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 60¢ | $10.7k | called | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 59¢ | $174.3k 7.7× usual |
called | |
| LOW BUY Rockets @ 74¢ | $29.7k | missed | |
| MED BUY Celtics @ 74¢ | $87.9k 3.9× usual |
called | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 54¢ | $73.7k 3.2× usual |
called |
SELL Yes @ 58¢$57.9k
LOW LOSING mooseborzoi · 100d ago
BUY Egypt @ 84¢$30.6k
LOW LOSING mooseborzoi · 108d ago
BUY No @ 85¢$15.2k
LOW LOSING mooseborzoi · 109d ago
BUY Yes @ 18¢$18.5k
LOW LOSING mooseborzoi · 126d ago
BUY Yes @ 18¢$88.5k
MED LOSING mooseborzoi · 127d ago
BUY No @ 94¢$10.6k
LOW LOSING mooseborzoi · 131d ago
BUY No @ 98.9¢$20.9k
LOW LOSING mooseborzoi · 134d ago
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