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What this means. A wallet put $18.7k on No, at a price that gave it a 45% chance. It lost. This wallet has a losing record: -23.0 pts vs the price over 30 bets. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.7k
BUY No @ 45¢ · 41,541 shares
Size ≥ $10kSports
What happened
Wallet gransaaa took No (buy) for $18.7k at an average 45¢. At that price the market implied a 45% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.7k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 45¢ means
45%chance the market gave
+122American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 45¢
- Implied odds
- 45.0%
- As American odds
- +122 no vig
- Size
- $18.7k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 23:51 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 08, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- gransaaa
- Tx
- 0x77e9f51e…
This wallet's graded record
8/30-23.0 pts
expected 14.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -45 ptsNo price · entry 45¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $71.4k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $24.2k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $149.8k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $74.3k | excluded |