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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.1 wins, so it did +14.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +5.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+14.2 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
3.1
Flagged volume
$3.84M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$12k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11? at 43¢) and the edge is +5.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
67% vs 52% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$28.9k
Last 30 days −$39.4k · $29.37M volume · 12,678 trades · since Nov 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.37M
Open P&L · 2 positions
+$10.2k
Closed-position win rate
63%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
351d
746 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 4 | 2.6 | +28.6 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -58.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cavaliers vs. 76ers | MED SELL 76ers @ 92¢ | $32.1k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 45¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
 Texans vs. Jaguars | LOW SELL Jaguars @ 56¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 57¢ | $10.7k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 57¢ | $30.4k | missed |
 Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $11.1k | called |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $10.1k | called |
| Giants vs. Rams | MED BUY Giants @ 28¢ | $28.0k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Bears | LOW SELL Bears @ 28¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Bears | MED BUY Bears @ 66¢ | $53.4k | missed |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Panthers @ 57¢ | $11.4k | called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-05? | LOW SELL No @ 88¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $10.6k | called |
 Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 72¢ | $30.7k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW SELL Yes @ 31¢ | $31.6k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $43.5k | missed |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | MED SELL Yes @ 40¢ | $71.6k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $81.1k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $207.9k 6.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $142.8k 4.5× usual |
called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 41¢ | $42.4k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | MED SELL Yes @ 74¢ | $60.8k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $100.0k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 93¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY No @ 69¢ | $46.1k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED SELL Yes @ 95.4¢ | $48.6k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $23.5k | called |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Spurs @ 93¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 85¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Spurs @ 14¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $58.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 60¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 57¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 50¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Spurs @ 62¢ | $61.5k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW SELL 76ers @ 25¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 48¢ | $52.8k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 52¢ | $52.8k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 74¢ | $74.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | MED SELL Lakers @ 33¢ | $53.5k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 61¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-10.5) | LOW SELL Magic @ 99.9¢ | $22.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-10.5) | LOW BUY Magic @ 52¢ | $11.4k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED SELL Lakers @ 24¢ | $57.7k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 41¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 70¢ | $150.0k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED SELL Timberwolves @ 31¢ | $57.4k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 47¢ | $101.3k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Spurs @ 54¢ | $106.6k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Lakers @ 42¢ | $47.6k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | MED SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢ | $379.0k 12.0× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | MED BUY Hawks @ 75¢ | $217.1k 6.9× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW SELL Knicks @ 32¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | MED BUY Knicks @ 51¢ | $25.7k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | HIGH BUY Magic @ 24¢ | $115.6k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 76¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Magic @ 70¢ | $98.2k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | MED SELL Yes @ 42¢ | $25.2k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 50¢ | $43.6k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 91.6¢ | $109.4k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $72.2k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $209.2k 6.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $71.4k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $34.5k | excluded |
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