c4acap

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -40.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-40.6 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.4

Flagged volume

$298.3k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$50.5k

Last 30 days +$7,820 · $31.96M volume · 46,608 trades · since Dec 26, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$50.0k

Open P&L · 1 positions

−$4

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

302d

2857 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	1	0	0.4	-40.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	LOW BUY Gen.G @ 99.9¢	$72.6k 2.8× usual	100%	16h ago	excluded
Japan Women's Open: Mary Stoiana vs Katerina Siniakova	LOW BUY Katerina Siniakova @ 99.9¢	$72.2k 2.8× usual	100%	1d ago	excluded
LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY Karmine Corp @ 99.8¢	$66.2k 2.6× usual	100%	5d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs	LOW BUY BetBoom Team @ 99.9¢	$12.1k	100%	6d ago	excluded
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	LOW BUY LGD Gaming @ 99.9¢	$33.2k	100%	55d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY Vitality @ 99.9¢	$10.1k	100%	72d ago	excluded
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 59¢	$17.8k	41%	139d ago	missed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$14.0k	0%	198d ago	excluded

LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stageexcluded

BUY Gen.G @ 99.9¢$72.6k

LOW c4acap · 16h ago

Japan Women's Open: Mary Stoiana vs Katerina Siniakovaexcluded

BUY Katerina Siniakova @ 99.9¢$72.2k

LOW c4acap · 1d ago

LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winnerexcluded

BUY Karmine Corp @ 99.8¢$66.2k

LOW c4acap · 5d ago

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffsexcluded

BUY BetBoom Team @ 99.9¢$12.1k

LOW c4acap · 6d ago

LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerexcluded

BUY LGD Gaming @ 99.9¢$33.2k

LOW c4acap · 55d ago

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group Cexcluded

BUY Vitality @ 99.9¢$10.1k

LOW c4acap · 72d ago

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed

SELL No @ 59¢$17.8k

LOW c4acap · 139d ago

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$14.0k

LOW c4acap · 198d ago

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