← Wallets
+$44.7kYes · avg 47¢ → 75¢ · $120.7k+$40.0kYes · avg 5.1¢ → 13¢ · $66.3k · 0 proven with, 1 against−$57.9kYes · avg 23¢ → 10¢ · $45.9k−$2,816Yes · avg 2.3¢ → 1.8¢ · $9,112+$1,826Yes · avg 73¢ → 93.5¢ · $8,243 · 1 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 10 of 28. The prices it paid implied about 15.4 wins, so it did -19.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's a losing record: -19.3 pts vs the price over 28 bets. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-19.3 pts
Called / graded
10/28
Expected from price
15.4
Flagged volume
$17.44M
Sample size28 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$601k28 graded bets in the order they resolved · 10 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Falcons vs. Packers at 29¢) and the edge is -22.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
25% vs 30% · n=4
40–60¢
25% vs 50% · n=12
60–80¢
62% vs 69% · n=8
80–100¢
33% vs 87% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$38.5k
Last 30 days −$941.0k · $193.92M volume · 128,013 trades · since Apr 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$25.65M
Open P&L · 8 positions
+$26.0k
Closed-position win rate
77%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
205d
651 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 26 | 9 | 14.4 | -20.7 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | -1.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Patriots vs. Bears | LOW BUY Bears @ 76¢ | $38.0k | excluded |
 Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $21.7k | missed |
 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY 76ers @ 38¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Celtics @ 47¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | LOW SELL Buccaneers @ 45¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Bills vs. Rams | MED SELL Rams @ 62¢ | $62.0k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Falcons | HIGH BUY Falcons @ 63¢ | $374.2k 6.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $39.3k | excluded |
| Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | LOW SELL Buccaneers @ 14¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| Lions vs. Panthers | LOW SELL Lions @ 58¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Lions vs. Panthers | HIGH SELL Lions @ 66¢ | $262.7k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Lions vs. Panthers | MED BUY Lions @ 66¢ | $282.8k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | MED BUY Chiefs @ 60¢ | $89.5k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 60¢ | $38.5k | excluded |
| Steelers vs. Browns | MED BUY Steelers @ 59¢ | $129.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 58¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | MED BUY Rams @ 50¢ | $77.4k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Ravens @ 35¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | MED SELL Chiefs @ 84¢ | $37.8k | excluded |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | MED BUY Chiefs @ 85¢ | $239.6k 3.9× usual |
called |
| Falcons vs. Packers | LOW SELL Packers @ 71¢ | $18.6k | called |
| Giants vs. Rams | LOW SELL Rams @ 93.2¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Giants vs. Rams | MED SELL Rams @ 93.3¢ | $46.7k | excluded |
| Giants vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 81¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 59¢ | $26.3k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | MED SELL Chiefs @ 75¢ | $70.7k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | MED BUY Chiefs @ 61¢ | $120.5k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 71¢ | $71.0k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | MED BUY Chiefs @ 71¢ | $228.6k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Panthers @ 55¢ | $68.7k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $456.2k 7.4× usual |
excluded |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 89¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $100.6k | called |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | MED SELL Chiefs @ 54¢ | $103.2k | excluded |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $215.5k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
 UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Kamaru Usman @ 33¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED SELL France @ 52¢ | $111.0k | excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY France @ 68¢ | $326.8k 5.3× usual |
missed |
 Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90.6¢ | $18.9k | missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $197.5k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $23.2k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 56¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 41¢ | $258.0k 4.2× usual |
called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Norway @ 32¢ | $59.5k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL Yes @ 52¢ | $21.2k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $35.1k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 50¢ | $12.5k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 48¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 48¢ | $199.8k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 48¢ | $237.7k 3.8× usual |
missed |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Cabo Verde @ 7¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 77¢ | $201.1k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $222.4k 3.6× usual |
called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $273.8k 4.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $377.0k 6.1× usual |
excluded |
| South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Canada @ 72¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance | LOW SELL South Africa @ 29¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance | LOW BUY South Africa @ 27¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $63.0k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED SELL Yes @ 58¢ | $191.3k 3.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $289.3k 4.7× usual |
called |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $143.5k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $285.0k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 58¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $81.3k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $530.0k 8.6× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $111.4k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $49.4k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $147.9k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $1.03M 16.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | MED SELL Yes @ 66¢ | $76.4k | excluded |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $384.8k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $41.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $233.1k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $485.8k 7.9× usual |
called |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $204.3k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $263.7k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $70.0k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 31¢ | $91.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 66¢ | $257.4k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $114.9k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $509.4k 8.2× usual |
called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $47.1k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $93.7k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $662.8k 10.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $472.5k 7.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $91.9k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $78.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | LOW BUY Spain @ 58¢ | $11.5k | missed |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $17.1k | excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $805.9k 13.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $220.6k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $21.1k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $356.2k 5.8× usual |
excluded |
 Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 83¢ | $83.0k | excluded |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 79¢ | $25.5k | called |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 78¢ | $78.0k | called |
 Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
 Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider | MED BUY Aryna Sabalenka @ 89¢ | $116.6k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $11.6k | called |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 55¢ | $12.3k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Thunder @ 41¢ | $171.5k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 40¢ | $55.2k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 43¢ | $24.4k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $11.3k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 56¢ | $82.3k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 55¢ | $162.2k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 36¢ | $23.7k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 33¢ | $18.8k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 31¢ | $187.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Spurs @ 31¢ | $86.5k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Pistons @ 39¢ | $151.5k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $26.2k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | MED BUY Lakers @ 18¢ | $27.0k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $47.4k | excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $12.0k | called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $20.8k | called |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Sean Strickland @ 21¢ | $18.6k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY 76ers @ 40¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY 76ers @ 31¢ | $60.3k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 70¢ | $61.9k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 19¢ | $92.6k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 69¢ | $90.5k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 38¢ | $18.0k | missed |
| UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims) | LOW BUY Rafa Garcia @ 47¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 65¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 78¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Magic @ 22¢ | $58.1k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY 76ers @ 33¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 27¢ | $36.1k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $85.6k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 66¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 51¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW SELL Heat @ 35¢ | $35.0k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Heat @ 30¢ | $13.2k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 20¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Celtics | MED BUY Magic @ 85¢ | $169.2k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner | LOW SELL Carlos Alcaraz @ 47¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 34¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $199.8k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? | MED BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $109.6k | excluded |
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