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+$16.0kYes · avg 60¢ → 94.5¢ · $43.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$2,910Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 10¢ · $3,045−$6,709Yes · avg 32¢ → 9.4¢ · $2,835+$2,385Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 8.4¢ · $2,520−$199Yes · avg 22¢ → 20¢ · $2,197+$1,050Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 4¢ · $1,185+$750Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 2.9¢ · $885+$690Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 2.8¢ · $825
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 24. The prices it paid implied about 10.1 wins, so it did -29.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's a losing record: -29.7 pts vs the price over 24 bets. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-29.7 pts
Called / graded
3/24
Expected from price
10.1
Flagged volume
$3.44M
Sample size24 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$1.4M24 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? at 63¢) and the edge is -32.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 13% · n=2
20–40¢
0% vs 29% · n=7
40–60¢
0% vs 45% · n=10
60–80¢
60% vs 66% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.34M
Last 30 days −$22.1k · $185.61M volume · 127,341 trades · since Nov 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 400 closed
+$16.02M
Open P&L · 61 positions
+$15.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
400 closed
Wallet age · markets
707d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 22 | 3 | 9.8 | -30.8 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 0 | 0.4 | -17.8 pts |
History
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