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+$57No · avg 78¢ → 96.5¢ · $299−$246Yes · avg 89¢ → 39¢ · $193−$80Yes · avg 53¢ → 26¢ · $80+$4No · avg 72¢ → 92¢ · $21+$9Yes · avg 15¢ → 61¢ · $12−$8Yes · avg 18¢ → 8.5¢ · $7−$0No · avg 60¢ → 56¢ · $6
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$483.0k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$206.7k
Last 30 days −$18 · $9.13M volume · 12,055 trades · since Nov 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$302.5k
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$265
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
722d
959 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $160.0k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $47.5k | excluded |
 Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $64.9k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $34.8k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.6¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
 Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
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