0x3b44…264e

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +22.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?+$762No · avg 34¢ → 92.5¢ · $1,205 Will Donald Trump visit Mississippi in 2026?+$38Yes · avg 76¢ → 96¢ · $185

Price-adjusted edge

+22.8 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.5

Flagged volume

$262.4k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$282.7k

Last 30 days +$1,004 · $4.26M volume · 3,623 trades · since Sep 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$296.2k

Open P&L · 25 positions

−$459

Closed-position win rate

83%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

417d

498 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	2	1.5	+22.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$11.0k	88%	192d ago	called
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 66¢	$11.1k	66%	218d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.8¢	$47.2k	97%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.6¢	$32.1k	98%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$11.2k	77%	238d ago	excluded
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$49.8k	99%	262d ago	excluded
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$99.9k 3.1× usual	100%	334d ago	excluded

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?called

BUY No @ 88¢$11.0k

LOW 0x3b44…264e · 192d ago

Will Trump visit China by April 30?called

BUY No @ 66¢$11.1k

LOW 0x3b44…264e · 218d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded

BUY Yes @ 96.8¢$47.2k

LOW 0x3b44…264e · 237d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97.6¢$32.1k

LOW 0x3b44…264e · 237d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 77¢$11.2k

LOW 0x3b44…264e · 238d ago

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?excluded

BUY No @ 98.8¢$49.8k

LOW 0x3b44…264e · 262d ago

Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$99.9k

LOW 0x3b44…264e · 334d ago

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