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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +60.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+60.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$61.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$234
Last 30 days +$0 · $628.0k volume · 297 trades · since Oct 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$46.1k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$47.8k
Closed-position win rate
78%
55 closed
Wallet age · markets
376d
65 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | +60.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL No @ 69¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $12.6k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 77¢ | $25.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 43¢ | $12.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5b300c…