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+$43Yes · avg 2.1¢ → 4.9¢ · $75−$253Yes · avg 29¢ → 3.7¢ · $37−$101Yes · avg 90.7¢ → 20¢ · $28−$20No · avg 73¢ → 40¢ · $24
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -17.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-17.4 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$27.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$22.5k
Last 30 days −$751 · $7.10M volume · 7,580 trades · since Feb 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$214.0k
Open P&L · 391 positions
−$194.5k
Closed-position win rate
91%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
244d
867 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -17.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 92.9¢ | $15.0k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $12.0k | missed |
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