MisTKy

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 25 of 35. The prices it paid implied about 22.0 wins, so it did +8.5 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Without its single best bet: +5.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$3,459Yes · avg 88¢ → 93.5¢ · $59.1k Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?−$420No · avg 91.3¢ → 90.5¢ · $44.3k Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?+$136No · avg 96.3¢ → 96.9¢ · $25.3k France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?+$58No · avg 91.1¢ → 91.5¢ · $15.3k Will there be no Hormuz agreement?−$225Yes · avg 94.1¢ → 92.6¢ · $13.9k Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$85No · avg 80¢ → 80¢ · $13.5k Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?+$35No · avg 87¢ → 88¢ · $11.3k NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?+$131No · avg 96.2¢ → 97.4¢ · $11.2k

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing

Not No · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing

Not Yes · 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing

Price-adjusted edge

+8.5 pts

Called / graded

25/35

Expected from price

22.0

Flagged volume

$7.15M

Sample size35 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.3 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$261k

35 graded bets in the order they resolved · 25 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? at 5¢) and the edge is +5.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

20% vs 9% · n=5

20–40¢

80% vs 31% · n=5

40–60¢

0% vs 45% · n=3

60–80¢

80% vs 72% · n=5

80–100¢

94% vs 88% · n=17

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$333.3k

Last 30 days −$2,827 · $81.44M volume · 61,372 trades · since Jan 11, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Crypto	2	1	0.5	+27.0 pts
Other	28	19	18.2	+3.0 pts
Politics	2	2	1.8	+7.6 pts
Sports	1	1	0.4	+64.0 pts
Economy	2	2	1.2	+39.6 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied	When	Result
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$13.7k	80%	26m ago	pending
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$20.0k	91%	15h ago	pending
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$16.5k	92%	16h ago	pending
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 92¢	$37.3k 2.0× usual	92%	17h ago	pending
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 91¢	$73.1k 4.0× usual	9%	17h ago	pending
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$12.0k	67%	20h ago	pending
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢	$13.8k	69%	23h ago	pending
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	LOW BUY No @ 72¢	$17.8k	72%	1d ago	pending
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY No @ 70¢	$11.3k	70%	1d ago	pending
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	MED SELL Yes @ 66¢	$12.3k	34%	1d ago	pending
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$10.3k	92%	1d ago	pending
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	MED SELL No @ 92¢	$16.9k	8%	2d ago	pending
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 87¢	$43.5k 2.4× usual	87%	2d ago	pending
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢	$15.9k	79%	3d ago	pending
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$12.6k	88%	3d ago	pending
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	LOW SELL No @ 64¢	$11.4k	36%	3d ago	pending
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	LOW SELL No @ 36¢	$10.3k	64%	3d ago	pending
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	MED BUY No @ 91¢	$32.6k	91%	3d ago	pending
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 96¢	$25.4k	96%	12d ago	called
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 90¢	$25.7k	90%	15d ago	called
Eagles vs. Bears	LOW SELL Eagles @ 64¢	$10.7k	36%	25d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$19.9k	0%	26d ago	excluded
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.4¢	$41.0k 2.2× usual	96%	33d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢	$59.5k 3.2× usual	1%	37d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 56¢	$16.8k	56%	49d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$18.7k	0%	55d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$20.3k	0%	57d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢	$10.7k	35%	58d ago	called
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$16.6k	75%	59d ago	missed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 65¢	$10.6k	35%	62d ago	missed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$13.7k	75%	63d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$13.7k	75%	70d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 34¢	$10.1k	34%	72d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢	$11.0k	57%	73d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	MED BUY No @ 96.5¢	$47.5k 2.6× usual	96%	74d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	MED BUY No @ 89¢	$32.0k	89%	78d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	MED BUY Yes @ 17¢	$13.0k	17%	78d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	MED BUY No @ 85¢	$28.1k	85%	78d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	MED BUY No @ 85¢	$77.1k 4.2× usual	85%	79d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$19.2k	84%	79d ago	called

MisTKy

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

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