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rdba

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -17.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
-17.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$7.27M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$498.1k
Last 30 days −$5,113 · $46.54M volume · 7,973 trades · since Jun 18, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$1.12M
Open P&L · 84 positions
−$322.5k
Closed-position win rate
71%
248 closed
Wallet age · markets
493d
262 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other211.3-17.5 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ $51.8k78% 3d agopending
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $3.47M
63.6× usual
100% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $160.2k
2.9× usual
100% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $210.5k
3.9× usual
100% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ $116.6k
2.1× usual
99% 199d agoexcluded
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $368.4k
6.8× usual
100% 204d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $141.6k
2.6× usual
100% 208d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $390.8k
7.2× usual
100% 208d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 38¢ $38.4k38% 211d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $664.9k
12.2× usual
100% 234d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.7¢ $75.7k99% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ $246.8k
4.5× usual
98% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ $11.7k97% 237d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 90.9¢ $16.4k91% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.3¢ $10.8k94% 237d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $54.6k99% 266d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $662.4k
12.1× usual
100% 295d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $12.1k99% 296d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $12.5k96% 311d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?MED SELL No @ 95¢ $95.3k5% 324d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?MED SELL No @ 98.6¢ $178.7k
3.3× usual
1% 324d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $16.4k97% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $53.5k100% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.5¢ $13.3k94% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 91.7¢ $36.0k92% 354d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 92.6¢ $62.0k93% 359d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 93.3¢ $44.5k93% 364d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $30.7k93% 420d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED SELL Yes @ 71¢ $25.7k29% 462d agomissed

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