← Wallets
+$10.5kNo · avg 95.5¢ → 97.8¢ · $448.4k+$44.2kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $119.2k−$2,389No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $63.4k+$6,542No · avg 84¢ → 94.5¢ · $56.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$4,745No · avg 85¢ → 98.6¢ · $33.7k−$44.2kYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $30.8k+$8,438No · avg 63¢ → 90.5¢ · $27.6k+$11.8kNo · avg 51¢ → 94.8¢ · $25.7k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 7.1 wins, so it did -1.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.1 pts
Called / graded
7/11
Expected from price
7.1
Flagged volume
$1.69M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$25k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Thunder vs. Spurs at 51¢) and the edge is -6.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 12% · n=2
40–60¢
50% vs 50% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=3
80–100¢
75% vs 92% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$855.1k
Last 30 days +$135.8k · $189.70M volume · 393,066 trades · since May 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$9.01M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$3.42M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1973d
15961 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | +42.0 pts |
| Other | 9 | 5 | 6.0 | -10.6 pts |
History
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