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wan123

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 12 of 37. The prices it paid implied about 12.7 wins, so it did -1.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-1.8 pts over 37 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
-1.8 pts
Called / graded
12/37
Expected from price
12.7
Flagged volume
$4.25M
Sample size37 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.5 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$67k
37 graded bets in the order they resolved · 12 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$203k$0$159k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? at 11¢) and the edge is -4.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
50% vs 14% · n=6
20–40¢
26% vs 31% · n=19
40–60¢
27% vs 47% · n=11
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.33M
Last 30 days +$94.2k · $60.32M volume · 23,797 trades · since Feb 21, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$5.03M
Open P&L · 364 positions
−$3.90M
Closed-position win rate
79%
273 closed
Wallet age · markets
244d
563 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other1664.8+7.3 pts
Sports1967.2-6.4 pts
Politics200.6-30.6 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Patriots vs. BearsLOW BUY Patriots @ 41¢ $13.7k41% 1d agoexcluded
Cavaliers vs. 76ersLOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ $11.7k44% 1d agomissed
Warriors vs. LakersLOW BUY Warriors @ 39¢ $12.1k39% 2d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 13¢ $13.0k13% 2d agopending
Thunder vs. SpursLOW BUY Thunder @ 51¢ $11.3k51% 3d agoexcluded
Celtics vs. PistonsLOW BUY Celtics @ 53¢ $11.8k53% 3d agoexcluded
Commanders vs. 49ersLOW BUY Commanders @ 22¢ $22.0k22% 4d agomissed
Cardinals vs. RamsLOW BUY Cardinals @ 49¢ $16.3k49% 5d agoexcluded
Cardinals vs. RamsLOW BUY Rams @ 20¢ $15.6k20% 5d agoexcluded
Cardinals vs. RamsLOW BUY Cardinals @ 14¢ $10.9k14% 5d agoexcluded
Steelers vs. BuccaneersLOW BUY Buccaneers @ 45¢ $20.0k45% 5d agoexcluded
Cowboys vs. PackersLOW BUY Cowboys @ 50¢ $25.0k50% 5d agomissed
Panthers vs. EaglesLOW BUY Eagles @ 40¢ $20.0k40% 5d agomissed
Jets vs. PatriotsLOW BUY Jets @ 25¢ $12.5k25% 5d agomissed
Seahawks vs. BroncosLOW BUY Seahawks @ 26¢ $13.0k26% 8d agoexcluded
Eagles vs. JaguarsLOW BUY Jaguars @ 49¢ $10.3k49% 12d agoexcluded
Buccaneers vs. CowboysLOW BUY Cowboys @ 24¢ $11.8k24% 15d agoexcluded
Buccaneers vs. CowboysLOW BUY Buccaneers @ 20¢ $20.0k20% 15d agocalled
Chiefs vs. RaidersLOW BUY Chiefs @ 87¢ $24.1k87% 19d agoexcluded
Cowboys vs. TexansLOW BUY Texans @ 58¢ $29.0k58% 19d agoexcluded
Jaguars vs. BengalsLOW BUY Jaguars @ 44¢ $22.0k44% 19d agocalled
Cardinals vs. GiantsLOW BUY Giants @ 45¢ $22.5k45% 19d agocalled
Patriots vs. BillsMED BUY Patriots @ 27¢ $27.0k27% 19d agocalled
Vikings vs. BuccaneersLOW BUY Buccaneers @ 48¢ $24.0k48% 27d agomissed
Packers vs. JetsLOW BUY Jets @ 39¢ $13.9k39% 33d agomissed
Vikings vs. BearsLOW BUY Vikings @ 35¢ $14.0k35% 33d agocalled
Bengals vs. TexansLOW BUY Texans @ 59¢ $19.7k59% 33d agomissed
Colts vs. ChiefsLOW BUY Colts @ 29¢ $14.5k29% 33d agomissed
Lions vs. BillsLOW BUY Lions @ 31¢ $15.5k31% 36d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 91¢ $17.7k9% 38d agomissed
Falcons vs. SteelersLOW BUY Falcons @ 28¢ $14.0k28% 40d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 62¢ $12.2k38% 43d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 60¢ $42.1k
2.3× usual
60% 43d agocalled
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLOW BUY Team Yandex @ 30¢ $15.0k30% 62d agoexcluded
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLOW BUY Team Liquid @ 37¢ $18.5k37% 63d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 21¢ $21.0k21% 86d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 75¢ $56.2k
3.1× usual
75% 86d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 74¢ $61.9k
3.4× usual
74% 86d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 73¢ $22.0k73% 86d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 21¢ $10.3k21% 89d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ $15.2k16% 89d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 22¢ $14.4k22% 93d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 13¢ $10.4k13% 94d agomissed
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ $16.0k19% 123d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ $13.4k19% 128d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ $17.5k77% 131d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ $20.4k11% 134d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ $21.0k21% 134d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ $18.5k50% 134d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢ $12.7k14% 142d agocalled
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $98.9k
5.5× usual
99% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $101.7k
5.7× usual
99% 143d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 7¢ $11.0k7% 144d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ $11.4k16% 144d agocalled
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $79.9k
4.4× usual
0% 144d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 40¢ $14.1k60% 144d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 6¢ $11.2k6% 147d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 7¢ $13.9k7% 147d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 17¢ $26.5k17% 149d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢ $15.5k67% 151d agocalled
Thunder vs. SpursLOW BUY Thunder @ 22¢ $11.0k22% 152d agoexcluded
Knicks vs. CavaliersLOW BUY Cavaliers @ 36¢ $18.0k36% 153d agoexcluded
Spurs vs. ThunderMED BUY Thunder @ 66¢ $26.8k66% 156d agoexcluded
Spurs vs. ThunderLOW BUY Thunder @ 50¢ $12.5k50% 158d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 9¢ $11.0k9% 158d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ $11.4k27% 158d agocalled
Pistons vs. CavaliersLOW BUY Pistons @ 60¢ $15.6k60% 161d agoexcluded
Timberwolves vs. SpursLOW BUY Timberwolves @ 22¢ $11.0k22% 164d agoexcluded
Pistons vs. CavaliersLOW BUY Pistons @ 41¢ $20.5k41% 165d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ $11.4k19% 165d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢ $11.5k20% 166d agomissed
Spurs vs. TimberwolvesLOW BUY Timberwolves @ 36¢ $18.0k36% 166d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED SELL Yes @ 26¢ $45.6k
2.5× usual
74% 166d agocalled
Knicks vs. 76ersLOW BUY 76ers @ 32¢ $16.0k32% 168d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MED SELL Yes @ 34¢ $55.0k
3.1× usual
66% 169d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ $16.4k41% 169d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?MED BUY Yes @ 35¢ $29.7k35% 170d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ $18.0k18% 170d agomissed
Timberwolves vs. SpursLOW BUY Timberwolves @ 21¢ $10.5k21% 172d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $194.9k
10.8× usual
99% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ $13.8k19% 176d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $199.4k
11.1× usual
100% 177d agoexcluded
Pistons vs. MagicLOW BUY Pistons @ 44¢ $21.3k44% 179d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 8¢ $24.1k8% 182d agomissed
Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesLOW BUY Timberwolves @ 52¢ $25.3k52% 183d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢ $11.0k22% 185d agomissed
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsMED SELL Timberwolves @ 78¢ $35.1k22% 186d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 15¢ $52.3k
2.9× usual
15% 186d agomissed
Warriors vs. SunsLOW BUY Warriors @ 44¢ $14.9k44% 189d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 69¢ $20.9k31% 189d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 64¢ $12.9k64% 189d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 55¢ $19.0k45% 189d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL Yes @ 50¢ $14.5k50% 189d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 34¢ $16.1k34% 189d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 42¢ $13.0k58% 189d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?MED BUY Yes @ 29¢ $25.7k29% 189d agomissed
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $14.6k90% 190d agoexcluded
Warriors vs. ClippersLOW BUY Warriors @ 33¢ $20.6k33% 191d agocalled
Magic vs. 76ersLOW BUY Magic @ 50¢ $24.2k50% 191d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY Yes @ 26¢ $11.6k26% 191d agomissed
Heat vs. HornetsMED BUY Heat @ 31¢ $29.7k31% 192d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY Yes @ 24¢ $24.0k24% 192d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $68.2k
3.8× usual
98% 194d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $32.4k98% 194d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢ $23.5k2% 194d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?MED SELL No @ 90¢ $180.0k
10.0× usual
10% 194d agomissed
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW BUY No @ 74¢ $10.6k74% 194d agocalled
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 53¢ $21.7k53% 194d agoexcluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW SELL Yes @ 52¢ $11.3k48% 197d agocalled
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢ $15.0k36% 197d agomissed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 55¢ $16.0k45% 197d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢ $10.3k25% 197d agomissed
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?MED BUY Yes @ 43¢ $52.4k
2.9× usual
43% 197d agomissed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 66¢ $17.7k66% 199d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL No @ 61¢ $32.4k39% 199d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 42¢ $38.4k
2.1× usual
42% 199d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢ $88.7k
4.9× usual
41% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ $48.6k
2.7× usual
60% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 40¢ $32.5k40% 210d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 26¢ $17.9k74% 216d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $28.3k79% 217d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 45¢ $23.6k45% 217d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED SELL No @ 77¢ $38.5k
2.1× usual
23% 217d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $66.4k
3.7× usual
78% 217d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 48¢ $13.3k48% 218d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢ $10.0k20% 218d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $55.0k
3.1× usual
77% 218d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED SELL No @ 75¢ $33.3k25% 220d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 78¢ $15.7k22% 227d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 60¢ $14.5k60% 235d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 54¢ $16.5k54% 236d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 56¢ $10.8k44% 236d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED SELL No @ 74¢ $59.9k
3.3× usual
26% 236d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.4¢ $46.1k
2.6× usual
97% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.4¢ $33.7k95% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED SELL Yes @ 96.5¢ $29.3k4% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?HIGH BUY Yes @ 95.4¢ $297.5k
16.5× usual
95% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 47¢ $23.9k53% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 24¢ $24.0k24% 237d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 76¢ $19.0k24% 237d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ $12.6k57% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $25.3k83% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 50¢ $10.5k50% 237d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ $16.0k84% 238d agoexcluded
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?LOW BUY No @ 30¢ $13.6k30% 238d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL Yes @ 14¢ $39.9k
2.2× usual
86% 239d agoexcluded
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?LOW BUY No @ 31¢ $15.5k31% 240d agomissed

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