randomlypunting

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?+$458No · avg 93.3¢ → 97.9¢ · $9,896 Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?+$2No · avg 90¢ → 90¢ · $4,313 Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?−$1,437Yes · avg 46¢ → 31¢ · $3,056 Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?+$342No · avg 66¢ → 76¢ · $2,494 Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?+$46No · avg 83¢ → 85¢ · $1,725 Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?−$126No · avg 94.5¢ → 87¢ · $1,396 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$813Yes · avg 14¢ → 8.8¢ · $1,320 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+$38No · avg 79¢ → 82¢ · $1,222

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$109.4k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$97.6k

Last 30 days −$5,845 · $6.45M volume · 5,412 trades · since Jul 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$206.9k

Open P&L · 54 positions

−$10.8k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

455d

1414 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$15.0k	0%	163d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$10.5k	98%	199d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$12.3k	99%	199d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$11.8k	0%	234d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.9¢	$59.9k 4.9× usual	93%	353d ago	excluded

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?excluded

SELL No @ 99.7¢$15.0k

LOW randomlypunting · 163d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?excluded

BUY No @ 98.5¢$10.5k

LOW randomlypunting · 199d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?excluded

BUY No @ 99.2¢$12.3k

LOW randomlypunting · 199d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$11.8k

LOW randomlypunting · 234d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 92.9¢$59.9k

LOW randomlypunting · 353d ago

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