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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did +5.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +1.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.8 pts
Called / graded
5/6
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$602.1k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$8k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? at 71¢) and the edge is +1.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 58% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 72% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 95% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$260.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $15.25M volume · 9,806 trades · since Jul 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$310.0k
Open P&L · 96 positions
−$36.4k
Closed-position win rate
72%
263 closed
Wallet age · markets
453d
277 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +6.4 pts |
| Politics | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +4.6 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xce6694…