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+$7,156No · avg 88¢ → 97.4¢ · $76.2k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -37.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-37.4 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$434.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$5,201
Last 30 days +$940 · $2.18M volume · 1,169 trades · since Sep 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$63.5k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$68.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
397d
13 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -80.9 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $22.6k | missed |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ | $24.9k | called |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $67.6k | excluded |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ | $58.6k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $54.4k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ | $48.9k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $130.0k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $14.9k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $12.5k | called |
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