← Wallets
+$1,606No · avg 79¢ → 93.5¢ · $10.2k+$300No · avg 92¢ → 97.7¢ · $5,181−$199Yes · avg 24¢ → 22¢ · $1,444−$675Yes · avg 23¢ → 6.5¢ · $266+$21No · avg 85¢ → 98.2¢ · $158−$842Yes · avg 37¢ → 3.2¢ · $82−$1Yes · avg 19¢ → 17¢ · $7+$1Yes · avg 13¢ → 16¢ · $6
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +3.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -11.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.6 pts
Called / graded
2/6
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$360.0k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$37k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? at 23¢) and the edge is -11.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=2
20–40¢
33% vs 26% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 86% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$31.2k
Last 30 days +$661 · $28.42M volume · 13,831 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.88M
Open P&L · 152 positions
−$1.09M
Closed-position win rate
98%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
726d
795 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 0 | 0.6 | -27.6 pts |
| Other | 4 | 2 | 1.2 | +19.2 pts |
History
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