← Wallets
+$2,165No · avg 85¢ → 92¢ · $29.2k+$1,296No · avg 86¢ → 96¢ · $12.8k−$1,549Yes · avg 88¢ → 76¢ · $9,227+$781Yes · avg 77¢ → 86¢ · $8,017−$5,775Yes · avg 27¢ → 15¢ · $7,675+$44Yes · avg 94.5¢ → 95.8¢ · $3,361−$771Yes · avg 49¢ → 40¢ · $3,359+$917No · avg 24¢ → 40¢ · $2,250
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 5.8 wins, so it did +2.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+2.8 pts
Called / graded
6/7
Expected from price
5.8
Flagged volume
$311.8k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$15k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? at 64¢) and the edge is -2.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=2
80–100¢
80% vs 88% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$553.3k
Last 30 days +$15.3k · $14.52M volume · 14,514 trades · since Sep 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$755.0k
Open P&L · 74 positions
−$28.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
762d
953 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 7 | 6 | 5.8 | +2.8 pts |
History
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