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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +7.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$118.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$24.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.48M volume · 1,975 trades · since Feb 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$24.5k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$244
Closed-position win rate
66%
267 closed
Wallet age · markets
250d
247 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $32.4k 2.3× usual |
called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97.3¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf0539f…