← Wallets
+$74Yes · avg 1.9¢ → 2.1¢ · $636
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -4.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-4.4 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$373.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$99.9k
Last 30 days −$281 · $2.27M volume · 1,030 trades · since Jan 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$99.8k
Open P&L · 1 positions
+$74
Closed-position win rate
65%
65 closed
Wallet age · markets
290d
60 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -4.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $65.8k 2.1× usual |
called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ | $55.4k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $68.4k 2.2× usual |
called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 19¢ | $10.9k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 60¢ | $19.4k | missed |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $16.1k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 84¢ | $16.8k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | MED SELL Yes @ 95.6¢ | $42.9k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | MED SELL Yes @ 95.6¢ | $59.6k | missed |
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