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+$3,440No · avg 86¢ → 95.8¢ · $33.8k+$1,353No · avg 87¢ → 95.2¢ · $15.6k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -80.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-80.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$22.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±39.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$117
Last 30 days +$244 · $182.6k volume · 12 trades · since Dec 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$698
Open P&L · 3 positions
+$548
Closed-position win rate
50%
2 closed
Wallet age · markets
308d
5 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -80.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $22.7k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x71139c…