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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +33.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+33.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$50.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$20.6k
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.67M volume · 1,534 trades · since Feb 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$85.6k
Open P&L · 134 positions
−$104.7k
Closed-position win rate
75%
195 closed
Wallet age · markets
249d
320 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +33.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $13.1k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $14.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2b12af…