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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -6.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-6.2 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$27.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$48.6k
Last 30 days −$137 · $820.7k volume · 331 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$35.1k
Open P&L · 53 positions
−$79.3k
Closed-position win rate
85%
33 closed
Wallet age · markets
272d
85 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -6.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | LOW SELL Yes @ 93.8¢ | $12.5k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe83816…