Mr-Krabs

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$185Yes · avg 92.3¢ → 91.5¢ · $20.6k Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$363No · avg 84¢ → 82¢ · $14.4k Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$8Yes · avg 83¢ → 83¢ · $6,798 Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?+$536No · avg 71¢ → 78¢ · $6,507 Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?−$304No · avg 75¢ → 72¢ · $5,825 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?+$542Yes · avg 75¢ → 86¢ · $4,477 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?+$392No · avg 86¢ → 94.5¢ · $4,329 Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?+$325No · avg 85¢ → 91.5¢ · $4,255

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$111.2k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$63.7k

Last 30 days −$8,526 · $9.16M volume · 15,715 trades · since Feb 03, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$411.9k

Open P&L · 30 positions

+$177

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

628d

825 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$12.2k	99%	144d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$19.9k	99%	144d ago	excluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$14.0k	0%	165d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$11.9k	100%	201d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$28.7k 2.3× usual	0%	236d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$12.3k	0%	237d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$12.2k	100%	318d ago	excluded

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.9¢$12.2k

LOW Mr-Krabs · 144d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$19.9k

LOW Mr-Krabs · 144d ago

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$14.0k

LOW Mr-Krabs · 165d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$11.9k

LOW Mr-Krabs · 201d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$28.7k

LOW Mr-Krabs · 236d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$12.3k

LOW Mr-Krabs · 237d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.6¢$12.2k

LOW Mr-Krabs · 318d ago

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