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bosshog

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?+$3,137No · avg 85¢ → 96.1¢ · $26.5kWill The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?−$1,200Yes · avg 52¢ → 44¢ · $6,405Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$3No · avg 95¢ → 95¢ · $4,753Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?+$1,089No · avg 72¢ → 97.7¢ · $4,144Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?+$1,083No · avg 67¢ → 97¢ · $3,489Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?+$1,729No · avg 38¢ → 93.5¢ · $2,907Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$1,172No · avg 46¢ → 32¢ · $2,762 · 0 proven with, 1 againstIsrael accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?+$90No · avg 94¢ → 97.6¢ · $2,440
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$1.27M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$237.3k
Last 30 days +$6,294 · $28.05M volume · 39,244 trades · since Mar 04, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$414.6k
Open P&L · 120 positions
−$37.6k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1642d
1747 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $13.9k100% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $25.0k100% 129d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $24.9k100% 143d agoexcluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $24.9k100% 173d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $13.5k100% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $54.8k
2.2× usual
100% 177d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $35.0k0% 177d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $99.7k
4.0× usual
100% 178d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k
2.0× usual
0% 178d agoexcluded
Will Trump dance today?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $50.0k
2.0× usual
0% 178d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $24.9k0% 185d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $39.9k0% 185d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $50.0k
2.0× usual
100% 185d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $25.0k0% 186d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $13.7k100% 187d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $22.3k1% 189d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $25.0k100% 190d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $39.9k100% 190d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $49.9k
2.0× usual
100% 198d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $12.4k100% 198d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $24.9k0% 198d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $37.4k0% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $15.0k100% 200d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $99.8k
4.0× usual
100% 201d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 203d agoexcluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $45.1k100% 234d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 234d agoexcluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $24.9k100% 236d agoexcluded
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $15.0k0% 237d agoexcluded
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $24.9k100% 239d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $25.0k0% 265d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ $11.2k1% 272d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $17.4k98% 285d agoexcluded
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $14.7k98% 285d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $24.9k0% 293d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $12.5k100% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $99.8k
4.0× usual
100% 295d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $24.9k100% 318d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$13.9k
LOW bosshog · 129d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$25.0k
LOW bosshog · 129d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$24.9k
LOW bosshog · 143d ago
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$24.9k
LOW bosshog · 173d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$13.5k
LOW bosshog · 176d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$54.8k
LOW bosshog · 177d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$35.0k
LOW bosshog · 177d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$99.7k
LOW bosshog · 178d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW bosshog · 178d ago
Will Trump dance today?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$50.0k
LOW bosshog · 178d ago
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$24.9k
LOW bosshog · 185d ago
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$39.9k
LOW bosshog · 185d ago
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$50.0k
LOW bosshog · 185d ago
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$25.0k
LOW bosshog · 186d ago
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$13.7k
LOW bosshog · 187d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$22.3k
LOW bosshog · 189d ago
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$25.0k
LOW bosshog · 190d ago
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$39.9k
LOW bosshog · 190d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW bosshog · 198d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$12.4k
LOW bosshog · 198d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$24.9k
LOW bosshog · 198d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW bosshog · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$37.4k
LOW bosshog · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$15.0k
LOW bosshog · 200d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$99.8k
LOW bosshog · 201d ago
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$20.0k
LOW bosshog · 203d ago
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$45.1k
LOW bosshog · 234d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW bosshog · 234d ago
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$24.9k
LOW bosshog · 236d ago
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$15.0k
LOW bosshog · 237d ago
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$24.9k
LOW bosshog · 239d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$25.0k
LOW bosshog · 265d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.2¢$11.2k
LOW bosshog · 272d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$17.4k
LOW bosshog · 285d ago
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$14.7k
LOW bosshog · 285d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$24.9k
LOW bosshog · 293d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$12.5k
LOW bosshog · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$99.8k
LOW bosshog · 295d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$24.9k
LOW bosshog · 318d ago

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