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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -10.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Not No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-10.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$118.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$38.5k
Last 30 days −$39.6k · $16.02M volume · 27,043 trades · since Sep 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.90M
Open P&L · 286 positions
−$701.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
415d
2243 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | -10.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $14.1k | pending |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 86¢ | $11.6k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $13.9k | missed |
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