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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$29.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$24.8k
Last 30 days −$0 · $297.2k volume · 83 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$17.1k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$7,705
Closed-position win rate
26%
19 closed
Wallet age · markets
487d
33 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97¢ | $14.3k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc53b7c…