033033033

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?+$52No · avg 98.5¢ → 98.8¢ · $20.4k

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$8.88M

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$309.4k

Last 30 days +$11.2k · $174.75M volume · 33,151 trades · since Nov 07, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$114.7k	100%	1d ago	pending
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$15.8k	100%	1d ago	pending
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$432.1k 5.5× usual	100%	24d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$45.9k	100%	26d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$137.6k	100%	26d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	MED BUY No @ 99.7¢	$338.5k 4.3× usual	100%	29d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$36.5k	100%	38d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$197.6k 2.5× usual	100%	39d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$233.1k 3.0× usual	100%	55d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$184.3k 2.4× usual	100%	56d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$57.5k	100%	57d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$295.7k 3.8× usual	100%	71d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$89.8k	100%	72d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	100%	72d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$257.6k 3.3× usual	100%	93d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$22.8k	100%	114d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$45.9k	100%	115d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$213.7k 2.7× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$199.8k 2.6× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$49.9k	100%	129d ago	excluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$40.1k	100%	138d ago	excluded
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$225.3k 2.9× usual	100%	140d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$158.4k 2.0× usual	100%	144d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$199.7k 2.6× usual	100%	150d ago	excluded
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$354.6k 4.5× usual	100%	151d ago	excluded
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$166.0k 2.1× usual	100%	152d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$87.3k	100%	156d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$78.2k	100%	156d ago	excluded
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$14.7k	100%	162d ago	excluded
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$36.0k	100%	162d ago	excluded
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$51.1k	100%	165d ago	excluded
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$95.1k	100%	166d ago	excluded
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$98.9k	100%	166d ago	excluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$39.5k	100%	168d ago	excluded
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$48.6k	100%	168d ago	excluded
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$49.9k	100%	174d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$98.9k	100%	184d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$98.7k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$137.2k	100%	185d ago	excluded
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$12.4k	100%	194d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$50.0k	100%	197d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$1.83M 23.4× usual	100%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$296.7k 3.8× usual	100%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$131.0k	100%	200d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$149.8k	100%	202d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$98.9k	100%	205d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$13.0k	100%	206d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$62.9k	100%	209d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$15.0k	100%	210d ago	excluded
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$13.5k	100%	222d ago	excluded
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$38.0k	100%	224d ago	excluded
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$74.8k	100%	229d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$79.9k	100%	235d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$12.5k	100%	235d ago	excluded
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$16.0k	100%	238d ago	excluded
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$25.0k	100%	240d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$15.0k	100%	243d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$20.7k	100%	257d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$197.8k 2.5× usual	100%	258d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$99.4k	100%	264d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$198.8k 2.5× usual	100%	265d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$188.2k 2.4× usual	100%	265d ago	excluded
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$33.8k	99%	286d ago	excluded
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$18.9k	99%	288d ago	excluded
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$36.7k	99%	292d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$44.2k	100%	294d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$39.8k	100%	332d ago	excluded

033033033

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Polymarket profile

History

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