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mr.ozi

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 11 of 21. The prices it paid implied about 12.8 wins, so it did -8.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-8.7 pts over 21 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
-8.7 pts
Called / graded
11/21
Expected from price
12.8
Flagged volume
$2.04M
Sample size21 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.1 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$80k
21 graded bets in the order they resolved · 11 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$84k$0$29k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? at 28¢) and the edge is -12.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 10% · n=2
20–40¢
67% vs 34% · n=3
40–60¢
25% vs 57% · n=4
60–80¢
33% vs 65% · n=6
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$799.5k
Last 30 days +$57.9k · $42.26M volume · 41,269 trades · since Jul 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.76M
Open P&L · 29 positions
+$42.6k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
830d
2045 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics221.5+26.1 pts
Other1498.5+3.5 pts
Economy402.5-62.6 pts
Sports100.3-34.6 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ $14.2k89% 1d agopending
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.8¢ $12.6k97% 28d agocalled
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.2¢ $16.4k96% 30d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $15.1k96% 34d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ $68.1k
4.2× usual
78% 35d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW SELL Yes @ 75¢ $18.8k25% 35d agomissed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ $55.3k
3.4× usual
72% 46d agocalled
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ $17.3k85% 50d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ $19.8k66% 60d agomissed
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $27.4k1% 66d agoexcluded
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ $29.1k58% 66d agomissed
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $24.9k99% 72d agoexcluded
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $29.8k99% 73d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ $11.1k61% 73d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ $23.0k60% 73d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ $12.6k63% 77d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $17.2k14% 81d agomissed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ $15.6k62% 87d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ $16.1k43% 116d agomissed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ $24.5k65% 122d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ $10.0k60% 124d agocalled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ $12.9k60% 125d agocalled
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $16.9k0% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $15.0k0% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $24.7k99% 144d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $44.4k
2.7× usual
1% 145d agoexcluded
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $14.9k1% 146d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $29.8k1% 148d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 23¢ $10.5k77% 149d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $29.8k1% 150d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ $20.0k98% 151d agoexcluded
Will Trump visit China by May 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $18.9k1% 165d agoexcluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $16.9k0% 166d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 94¢ $21.6k6% 166d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $11.4k88% 166d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 94.4¢ $11.4k6% 170d agomissed
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $18.4k92% 173d agocalled
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.9¢ $13.8k97% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $69.9k
4.3× usual
100% 177d agoexcluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $13.3k99% 178d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 43¢ $14.0k57% 178d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $54.1k
3.3× usual
0% 179d agoexcluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $14.3k98% 179d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $10.0k0% 179d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $14.2k99% 183d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $25.0k0% 183d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 91¢ $10.9k91% 184d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $19.4k98% 186d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 95.1¢ $11.9k5% 186d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢ $14.4k28% 189d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $19.9k1% 189d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $14.8k1% 190d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $14.8k1% 191d agoexcluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ $14.8k2% 192d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ $11.6k58% 193d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $20.7k1% 193d agoexcluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $11.3k76% 193d agoexcluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $19.7k96% 193d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.6¢ $15.8k98% 195d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ $12.6k84% 195d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $17.5k97% 197d agocalled
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢ $16.4k35% 197d agomissed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ $10.2k52% 199d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ $14.3k95% 200d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢ $14.5k96% 203d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 84¢ $24.6k16% 208d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 72¢ $10.8k28% 223d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 78¢ $15.7k22% 228d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 68¢ $12.2k68% 229d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 65¢ $13.1k65% 232d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 62¢ $18.6k62% 233d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 69¢ $10.3k69% 233d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 78¢ $11.6k22% 236d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $49.4k
3.0× usual
0% 236d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $11.4k76% 237d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $13.0k71% 237d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.4¢ $13.6k97% 237d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED BUY Yes @ 95.2¢ $30.8k95% 238d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ $34.0k
2.1× usual
53% 238d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 53¢ $10.6k53% 238d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 91.5¢ $33.5k
2.0× usual
92% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $16.6k83% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $28.2k94% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 73¢ $18.3k27% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL No @ 93¢ $27.9k7% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 44¢ $30.6k56% 239d agocalled
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 45¢ $28.8k45% 240d agomissed
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 42¢ $12.6k58% 240d agocalled
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 47¢ $18.7k47% 240d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $19.7k98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $35.4k
2.2× usual
98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ $11.6k39% 241d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 83¢ $20.8k17% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $13.9k93% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $19.7k1% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $19.3k96% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $12.6k84% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $18.8k94% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $21.5k86% 248d agoexcluded
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?LOW SELL No @ 81¢ $16.0k19% 263d agomissed
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $16.4k82% 263d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $13.5k90% 359d agocalled

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