← Wallets
+$8,392No · avg 63¢ → 78¢ · $44.1k−$5,236Yes · avg 23¢ → 6.5¢ · $2,102+$710No · avg 14¢ → 94.4¢ · $834+$69Yes · avg 66¢ → 77¢ · $509+$110No · avg 52¢ → 95.5¢ · $240+$83Yes · avg 5.9¢ → 28¢ · $104−$1,151No · avg 74¢ → 3.9¢ · $63+$36Yes · avg 5¢ → 90.1¢ · $39
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did -20.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-20.0 pts
Called / graded
1/8
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$1.41M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$90k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? at 78¢) and the edge is -26.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 10% · n=3
20–40¢
0% vs 29% · n=3
60–80¢
50% vs 70% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$91.5k
Last 30 days −$12.1k · $18.65M volume · 10,604 trades · since Feb 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$230.4k
Open P&L · 151 positions
−$433.4k
Closed-position win rate
53%
336 closed
Wallet age · markets
265d
375 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 6 | 1 | 2.5 | -24.3 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -6.0 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -8.0 pts |
History
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