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What this means. A wallet put $12.8k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 21% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.8k
SELL Yes @ 79¢ · 16,210 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet 99problems123 took Yes (sell) for $12.8k at an average 79¢. At that price the market implied a 21% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 79¢
- Implied odds
- 21.0%
- Size
- $12.8k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 08:49 EST
- Market close
- Mar 03, 19:58 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 99problems123
- Tx
- 0x65442661…
This wallet's graded record
1/8-20.0 pts
expected 2.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -21 ptsYes price · entry 79¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $161.5k 8.1× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k | excluded |