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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -15.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.7 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$503.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$304.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.47M volume · 1,659 trades · since Jul 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$9,397
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$170.2k
Closed-position win rate
36%
11 closed
Wallet age · markets
476d
17 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -15.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $13.2k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93.6¢ | $92.8k 4.6× usual |
missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $92.8k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $29.8k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $16.4k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 8.2¢ | $16.3k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $161.5k 8.1× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $18.4k | called |
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