WhaleGrader
Log inSign up
← Wallets

alliswell

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +7.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.9 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$3.52M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$445.4k
Last 30 days −$0 · $116.43M volume · 60,220 trades · since Sep 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 458 closed
+$608.4k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
71%
458 closed
Wallet age · markets
394d
349 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics110.9+9.0 pts
Economy100.2-18.0 pts
Sports110.7+32.6 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 82¢ $55.6k18% 107d agomissed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢ $21.3k67% 108d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ $29.3k2% 140d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 98¢ $78.4k2% 140d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $30.6k0% 150d agoexcluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW SELL Yes @ 36¢ $18.0k64% 154d agocalled
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.9¢ $11.4k97% 154d agomissed
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ $65.0k97% 175d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?MED SELL No @ 99.8¢ $399.2k
8.5× usual
0% 177d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $50.0k100% 181d agoexcluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $34.5k99% 191d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $25.2k99% 198d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?MED SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $528.6k
11.2× usual
0% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $70.3k0% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ $92.2k1% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $15.5k93% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $138.6k
2.9× usual
0% 200d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $99.9k
2.1× usual
0% 206d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $89.9k0% 235d agoexcluded
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k100% 235d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $99.9k
2.1× usual
100% 235d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $95.8k
2.0× usual
0% 235d agoexcluded
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.5k100% 238d agoexcluded
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $13.3k100% 258d agoexcluded
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $46.0k0% 259d agoexcluded
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $19.0k100% 259d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $10.5k0% 262d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k0% 263d agoexcluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $199.5k
4.2× usual
0% 263d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $35.4k100% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $366.4k
7.8× usual
0% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 266d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED SELL Yes @ 93¢ $39.5k7% 266d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $189.4k
4.0× usual
0% 293d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $199.4k
4.2× usual
100% 293d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $48.2k96% 311d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 96.1¢ $103.6k
2.2× usual
96% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ $36.4k91% 359d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 93¢ $22.5k7% 380d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $34.9k94% 393d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 82¢$55.6k
MED alliswell · 107d ago
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called
SELL Yes @ 33¢$21.3k
LOW alliswell · 108d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 97.7¢$29.3k
LOW alliswell · 140d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98¢$78.4k
LOW alliswell · 140d ago
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$30.6k
LOW alliswell · 150d ago
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?called
SELL Yes @ 36¢$18.0k
LOW alliswell · 154d ago
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?missed
BUY Yes @ 96.9¢$11.4k
LOW alliswell · 154d ago
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97¢$65.0k
LOW alliswell · 175d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$399.2k
MED alliswell · 177d ago
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$50.0k
LOW alliswell · 181d ago
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$34.5k
LOW alliswell · 191d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$25.2k
LOW alliswell · 198d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$528.6k
MED alliswell · 199d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$70.3k
LOW alliswell · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.9¢$92.2k
LOW alliswell · 199d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 93¢$15.5k
LOW alliswell · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$138.6k
LOW alliswell · 200d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$99.9k
LOW alliswell · 206d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$89.9k
LOW alliswell · 235d ago
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW alliswell · 235d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$99.9k
LOW alliswell · 235d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$95.8k
LOW alliswell · 235d ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$20.5k
LOW alliswell · 238d ago
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$13.3k
LOW alliswell · 258d ago
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$46.0k
LOW alliswell · 259d ago
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$19.0k
LOW alliswell · 259d ago
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$10.5k
LOW alliswell · 262d ago
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$49.9k
LOW alliswell · 263d ago
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$199.5k
LOW alliswell · 263d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$35.4k
LOW alliswell · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$366.4k
MED alliswell · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$20.0k
LOW alliswell · 266d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 93¢$39.5k
MED alliswell · 266d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$189.4k
LOW alliswell · 293d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$199.4k
LOW alliswell · 293d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?excluded
BUY No @ 96.4¢$48.2k
LOW alliswell · 311d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 96.1¢$103.6k
MED alliswell · 353d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 91¢$36.4k
LOW alliswell · 359d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed
SELL No @ 93¢$22.5k
LOW alliswell · 380d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?called
BUY No @ 94¢$34.9k
LOW alliswell · 393d ago

Share this record

WhaleGrader badge
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1521b4…