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What this means. A wallet put $99.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$99.9k
SELL No @ 99.9¢ · 100,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)2.1× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet alliswell took No (sell) for $99.9k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $99.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 0.1%
- Size
- $99.9k
- Placed
- Apr 01, 02:45 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- alliswell
- Tx
- 0xf58e9cf5…
This wallet's graded record
2/3+7.9 pts
expected 1.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $369.4k 9.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.8k | excluded |