WhaleGrader
Log inSign up
← Wallets

Aeglos

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 6.1 wins, so it did +12.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +11.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Trump out as President before 2027?+$8,290No · avg 86¢ → 95.8¢ · $79.5kWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$4,903Yes · avg 88¢ → 94.5¢ · $68.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against
Price-adjusted edge
+12.5 pts
Called / graded
7/7
Expected from price
6.1
Flagged volume
$726.7k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.2 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$34k
7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
$0$34k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep at 79¢) and the edge is +11.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 79% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$112.7k
Last 30 days +$1,493 · $4.42M volume · 2,780 trades · since Jan 13, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$84.9k
Open P&L · 2 positions
+$13.2k
Closed-position win rate
76%
33 closed
Wallet age · markets
284d
30 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy776.1+12.5 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $21.8k87% 38d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ $23.5k79% 42d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $38.5k
2.1× usual
80% 42d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $37.7k
2.1× usual
81% 42d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95¢ $12.4k5% 175d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95¢ $19.7k5% 175d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 95¢ $58.9k
3.2× usual
5% 175d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $16.3k93% 185d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $16.9k1% 185d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $14.2k92% 190d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢ $11.4k1% 190d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.2¢ $10.1k2% 201d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ $107.8k
5.9× usual
98% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $14.0k0% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $59.8k
3.3× usual
0% 208d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $19.9k1% 209d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $15.8k1% 209d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.8¢ $16.3k96% 221d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ $14.5k96% 222d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ $10.5k96% 223d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 82¢ $32.8k18% 223d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢ $32.4k95% 225d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $14.1k88% 226d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.6¢ $14.3k96% 283d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.9¢ $28.8k96% 283d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 94.2¢ $64.6k
3.5× usual
94% 284d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 87¢$21.8k
LOW Aeglos · 38d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 79¢$23.5k
LOW Aeglos · 42d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 80¢$38.5k
LOW Aeglos · 42d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 81¢$37.7k
LOW Aeglos · 42d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95¢$12.4k
LOW Aeglos · 175d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95¢$19.7k
LOW Aeglos · 175d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95¢$58.9k
MED Aeglos · 175d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 93¢$16.3k
LOW Aeglos · 185d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.3¢$16.9k
LOW Aeglos · 185d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 92¢$14.2k
LOW Aeglos · 190d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.1¢$11.4k
LOW Aeglos · 190d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.2¢$10.1k
LOW Aeglos · 201d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98¢$107.8k
LOW Aeglos · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$14.0k
LOW Aeglos · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$59.8k
LOW Aeglos · 208d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$19.9k
LOW Aeglos · 209d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$15.8k
LOW Aeglos · 209d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 95.8¢$16.3k
LOW Aeglos · 221d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 96.5¢$14.5k
LOW Aeglos · 222d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 95.9¢$10.5k
LOW Aeglos · 223d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?missed
SELL No @ 82¢$32.8k
MED Aeglos · 223d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 95.3¢$32.4k
LOW Aeglos · 225d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 88¢$14.1k
LOW Aeglos · 226d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 95.6¢$14.3k
LOW Aeglos · 283d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 95.9¢$28.8k
LOW Aeglos · 283d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 94.2¢$64.6k
MED Aeglos · 284d ago

Share this record

WhaleGrader badge
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xb66582…