Erasmus.

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 29 of 36. The prices it paid implied about 24.2 wins, so it did +13.4 pts better than the market expected. That's a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. Without its single best bet: +11.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$42.6kYes · avg 81¢ → 93.5¢ · $320.8k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$57.9kNo · avg 74¢ → 94.5¢ · $269.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?−$394.0kYes · avg 35¢ → 6.5¢ · $88.9k Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?+$5,281No · avg 90.5¢ → 97.6¢ · $72.4k Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$1,781No · avg 88¢ → 91.5¢ · $46.6k Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?+$2,924No · avg 83¢ → 93.5¢ · $25.4k Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?+$2,817No · avg 82¢ → 93.5¢ · $22.9k Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?−$74.4kNo · avg 32¢ → 6.5¢ · $18.6k · 0 proven with, 1 against

Price-adjusted edge

+13.4 pts

Called / graded

29/36

Expected from price

24.2

Flagged volume

$9.19M

Sample size36 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.4 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$312k

36 graded bets in the order they resolved · 29 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? at 20¢) and the edge is +11.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 14% · n=3

20–40¢

33% vs 22% · n=3

40–60¢

71% vs 51% · n=7

60–80¢

100% vs 70% · n=4

80–100¢

100% vs 88% · n=19

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$191.9k

Last 30 days −$501.1k · $146.97M volume · 26,889 trades · since Jul 30, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	15	15	11.2	+25.3 pts
Other	20	14	12.7	+6.3 pts
Politics	1	0	0.2	-23.5 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 88¢	$79.3k 2.1× usual	88%	37d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 10¢	$23.3k	10%	38d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$22.3k	88%	38d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 87¢	$69.7k	87%	38d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 87¢	$42.1k	87%	39d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 85¢	$102.0k 2.7× usual	85%	39d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 81¢	$125.9k 3.4× usual	81%	42d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 76¢	$213.7k 5.7× usual	76%	42d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$42.7k	80%	42d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 65¢	$75.8k 2.0× usual	65%	43d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢	$19.1k	54%	43d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢	$15.6k	52%	44d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 50¢	$22.5k	50%	46d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 50¢	$47.5k	50%	46d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 41¢	$64.7k	41%	52d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 59¢	$37.6k	59%	53d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢	$21.1k	58%	53d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 50¢	$20.4k	50%	56d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢	$19.7k	50%	56d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 75¢	$199.8k 5.4× usual	75%	86d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 75¢	$35.5k	75%	86d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢	$367.5k 9.8× usual	73%	86d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 25¢	$17.1k	25%	87d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 23¢	$11.5k	23%	87d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 18¢	$92.5k 2.5× usual	18%	87d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 19¢	$38.0k	19%	87d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 22¢	$42.2k	22%	87d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 27¢	$120.1k 3.2× usual	27%	88d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	HIGH BUY No @ 27¢	$40.2k	27%	88d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 93¢	$18.9k	7%	100d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 93.3¢	$78.6k 2.1× usual	7%	100d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 83¢	$69.8k	83%	101d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢	$15.4k	76%	107d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	MED BUY Yes @ 49¢	$59.7k	49%	123d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$349.3k 9.4× usual	0%	128d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED SELL Yes @ 27¢	$25.3k	73%	131d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$11.6k	59%	131d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 77¢	$40.0k	77%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 30¢	$30.0k	70%	134d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 13¢	$10.3k	13%	142d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 6¢	$20.5k	6%	143d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢	$10.3k	41%	147d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 9¢	$11.2k	9%	147d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 30¢	$16.3k	30%	148d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 9¢	$38.5k	9%	148d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢	$11.7k	83%	152d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED BUY Yes @ 57¢	$62.0k	57%	152d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢	$14.5k	96%	153d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢	$12.6k	45%	155d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 24¢	$12.7k	24%	155d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 18¢	$37.1k	18%	155d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 11¢	$10.6k	11%	156d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 10¢	$24.0k	90%	158d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 34¢	$42.1k	34%	162d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 12¢	$12.0k	12%	162d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢	$16.7k	35%	164d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 23¢	$18.4k	23%	166d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 28¢	$12.1k	28%	166d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 70¢	$25.2k	70%	166d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	MED BUY Yes @ 23¢	$10.8k	23%	166d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢	$10.5k	53%	166d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 52¢	$57.5k	48%	168d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 33¢	$89.7k 2.4× usual	67%	168d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 34¢	$51.0k	34%	169d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED BUY Yes @ 54¢	$29.1k	54%	170d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED BUY Yes @ 52¢	$27.0k	52%	170d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢	$15.9k	47%	170d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	MED BUY Yes @ 16¢	$15.0k	16%	171d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$199.2k 5.3× usual	100%	176d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED SELL No @ 99.8¢	$249.5k 6.7× usual	0%	179d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢	$17.0k	42%	182d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢	$11.7k	40%	182d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	MED BUY Yes @ 19¢	$10.4k	19%	185d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	HIGH SELL Yes @ 95.4¢	$57.3k	5%	185d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 38¢	$13.2k	62%	186d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$15.6k	75%	187d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 61¢	$18.2k	39%	190d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$21.8k	87%	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 85¢	$42.3k	85%	191d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 92¢	$46.0k	92%	191d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢	$11.7k	61%	191d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 91¢	$45.5k	91%	192d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	MED BUY No @ 94¢	$47.0k	94%	193d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 90¢	$45.0k	90%	193d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$13.5k	89%	193d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	MED BUY No @ 86¢	$27.6k	86%	194d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$179.3k 4.8× usual	0%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	MED BUY Yes @ 95¢	$95.0k 2.5× usual	95%	199d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 90¢	$45.9k	90%	199d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	MED BUY Yes @ 20¢	$10.0k	20%	199d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	HIGH BUY No @ 95¢	$285.0k 7.6× usual	95%	206d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 99.9¢	$369.4k 9.9× usual	0%	206d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 99.8¢	$299.4k 8.0× usual	0%	207d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 84¢	$42.0k	84%	210d ago	called
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$49.6k	1%	210d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED SELL No @ 73¢	$86.1k 2.3× usual	27%	223d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 95.3¢	$47.6k	95%	224d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 93.8¢	$187.7k 5.0× usual	94%	228d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$64.0k	80%	231d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$240.1k 6.4× usual	80%	231d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 63¢	$41.8k	63%	231d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 87¢	$83.8k 2.2× usual	87%	232d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 62¢	$62.0k	62%	232d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.4¢	$357.8k 9.6× usual	1%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.9¢	$22.1k	97%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$49.5k	99%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢	$49.4k	99%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED BUY Yes @ 68¢	$99.6k 2.7× usual	68%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢	$19.6k	82%	237d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED SELL Yes @ 38¢	$37.6k	62%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 24¢	$24.0k	24%	237d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED BUY Yes @ 50¢	$54.0k	50%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$32.4k	0%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢	$31.8k	99%	237d ago	excluded
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	MED BUY No @ 24¢	$11.5k	24%	240d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 86¢	$162.2k 4.3× usual	86%	247d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢	$203.2k 5.4× usual	97%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢	$17.4k	84%	266d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢	$19.8k	86%	266d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED BUY Yes @ 89¢	$44.5k	89%	266d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	HIGH SELL Yes @ 80¢	$56.8k	20%	266d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED BUY No @ 79¢	$90.9k 2.4× usual	79%	267d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 73¢	$36.3k	27%	267d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$12.8k	77%	267d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED BUY Yes @ 71¢	$54.2k	71%	268d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED BUY Yes @ 75¢	$32.0k	75%	270d ago	called
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢	$40.1k	1%	281d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$14.4k	71%	283d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.8¢	$32.8k	96%	285d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.9¢	$30.5k	96%	285d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$240.0k 6.4× usual	80%	285d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$13.4k	85%	285d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢	$22.3k	96%	286d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 76¢	$41.1k	76%	286d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$16.3k	86%	288d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 88¢	$39.0k	88%	288d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$12.5k	79%	290d ago	missed
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 99.3¢	$339.9k 9.1× usual	1%	318d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 92¢	$101.4k 2.7× usual	92%	372d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 88¢	$50.2k	12%	384d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢	$20.6k	81%	410d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢	$13.1k	81%	445d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 75¢	$27.4k	75%	451d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 92¢	$47.0k	92%	462d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢	$16.2k	70%	474d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢	$19.6k	68%	477d ago	called

Erasmus.

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