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abuzzin

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -36.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-36.7 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$482.2k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$36.0k
Last 30 days +$127 · $4.07M volume · 5,047 trades · since Mar 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 410 closed
−$28.3k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$7,881
Closed-position win rate
65%
410 closed
Wallet age · markets
591d
376 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other301.1-36.7 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED SELL No @ 88¢ $49.9k
2.9× usual
12% 133d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?MED BUY No @ 90¢ $40.8k
2.4× usual
90% 134d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 84¢ $13.0k16% 134d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $10.9k14% 134d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $13.7k97% 154d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 87¢ $16.5k13% 186d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $17.8k0% 206d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $16.1k94% 246d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED SELL No @ 95¢ $38.1k
2.2× usual
5% 274d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $15.0k94% 277d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED SELL No @ 95¢ $33.2k5% 280d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $22.2k83% 282d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $12.2k81% 282d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW SELL No @ 79¢ $23.7k21% 282d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $16.3k77% 286d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $17.9k80% 287d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 96.7¢ $15.4k3% 287d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $24.0k98% 301d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $15.4k99% 303d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $29.9k1% 310d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $29.3k92% 427d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $11.0k92% 443d agocalled

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