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What this means. A wallet put $38.1k on not No, at a price that gave it a 5% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$38.1k
SELL No @ 95¢ · 40,125 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)2.2× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet abuzzin took No (sell) for $38.1k at an average 95¢. At that price the market implied a 5% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $38.1k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95¢
- Implied odds
- 5.0%
- Size
- $38.1k
- Placed
- Jan 22, 14:43 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- abuzzin
- Tx
- 0xd5ef0f2c…
This wallet's graded record
0/3-36.7 pts
expected 1.1 from price
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Entry to resolution
Grade -5 ptsNo price · entry 95¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $34.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | HIGH SELL No @ 82¢ | $319.4k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $35.4k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.3k | excluded |