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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -16.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-16.5 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$269.6k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$18.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.51M volume · 1,906 trades · since Oct 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$18.5k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
64%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
739d
44 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 1 | 1.7 | -16.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 50¢ | $45.5k 2.4× usual |
called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 16¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $14.7k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 85¢ | $13.7k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | MED SELL No @ 96.7¢ | $44.7k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $16.6k | missed |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 92¢ | $22.2k | missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 74¢ | $20.6k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
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