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What this means. A wallet put $15.4k on No, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.4k
BUY No @ 99.2¢ · 15,509 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet abuzzin took No (buy) for $15.4k at an average 99.2¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.4k+0
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−12400American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.2¢
- Implied odds
- 99.2%
- Size
- $15.4k
- Placed
- Dec 24, 08:10 EST
- Market close
- Aug 18, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- abuzzin
- Tx
- 0xe2918a51…
This wallet's graded record
0/3-36.7 pts
expected 1.1 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $45.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |