{"flags":[{"condition_id":"0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1ca440bc5ce199bd3c5a8d6139e044b076958164f8c5423","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x743b8e9ef863c01c8fa1c5534dcd1a90dc38efffb78299ec89682746f21d797c:1","id":"trade:0x743b8e9ef863c01c8fa1c5534dcd1a90dc38efffb78299ec89682746f21d797c:1","implied":0.12355978808618007,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.8764402119138199,"result":"called","side":"SELL","status":"called","t":1781272912,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?","usd":49931.149448815086,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1ca440bc5ce199bd3c5a8d6139e044b076958164f8c5423","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x851f6abed6ef67cdda705860504d75bde5a9787814cea617c4a91ff70374d86f:1","id":"trade:0x851f6abed6ef67cdda705860504d75bde5a9787814cea617c4a91ff70374d86f:1","implied":0.8984902805467805,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.8984902805467805,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1781236989,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?","usd":40847.99999341661,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1ca440bc5ce199bd3c5a8d6139e044b076958164f8c5423","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe33b9c9871d63ed0f7784a9034467a2d4edffbf4feb42912103ba427b33a4bfa:1","id":"trade:0xe33b9c9871d63ed0f7784a9034467a2d4edffbf4feb42912103ba427b33a4bfa:1","implied":0.15547442160000002,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.8445255784,"result":"called","side":"SELL","status":"called","t":1781228314,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?","usd":12974.894059515753,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1ca440bc5ce199bd3c5a8d6139e044b076958164f8c5423","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xf15a26fdc1828a7c945071a1051dece37edd3d06dabe6e4676feaa4da4bbd137:1","id":"trade:0xf15a26fdc1828a7c945071a1051dece37edd3d06dabe6e4676feaa4da4bbd137:1","implied":0.14354790760000002,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.8564520924,"result":"called","side":"SELL","status":"called","t":1781222884,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?","usd":10867.897439384256,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0x53098776eb95dbbd2e899c4fcd787a043ba725f55433948da2fbd00abdfcd3ae","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x6ad4ceb8eed604e88f32bde51ae7cb303c9066dd9cb7ecff577d178b097aba6b:1","id":"trade:0x6ad4ceb8eed604e88f32bde51ae7cb303c9066dd9cb7ecff577d178b097aba6b:1","implied":0.97,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.97,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1779475720,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?","usd":13685.138299999999,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xbbc6689d0f6d57ea42168836712237c7308b3e0118c8914d31b6126d0f3254c5","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x993e3a1e237c6f6d3e45a1ff336715c758c5d141c1a9a5ea596831a082f83c02:1","id":"trade:0x993e3a1e237c6f6d3e45a1ff336715c758c5d141c1a9a5ea596831a082f83c02:1","implied":0.13,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.87,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1776731262,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?","usd":16530.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0x61ce3773237a948584e422de72265f937034af418a8b703e3a860ea62e59ff36","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x060886d223f96bad18852ed0b528f5c43a17cbb8982d733e2943e5545381894f:1","id":"trade:0x060886d223f96bad18852ed0b528f5c43a17cbb8982d733e2943e5545381894f:1","implied":0.0010000000000000009,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.999,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1775002847,"title":"Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?","usd":17793.41877,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xd4bbf7f6707c67beb736135ad32a41f6db41f8ae52d3ac4919650de9eeb94ed8","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x915a7fd32eab12d22b1b904b1675825cc7ad9f702478765bee6fb63f5f140579:1","id":"trade:0x915a7fd32eab12d22b1b904b1675825cc7ad9f702478765bee6fb63f5f140579:1","implied":0.939,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.939,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1771518676,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","usd":16054.561889999997,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xd5ef0f2cb79a5af819b9be6b4967a7d8eb5dc24f73bb7ab17194fef8e932e8c3:1","id":"trade:0xd5ef0f2cb79a5af819b9be6b4967a7d8eb5dc24f73bb7ab17194fef8e932e8c3:1","implied":0.050000000000000155,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9499999999999998,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1769111036,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":38118.844999999994,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x145995df4b514e9f338c3c56d36a5e45fb163f2418ee05228dcccc007d76f950:1","id":"trade:0x145995df4b514e9f338c3c56d36a5e45fb163f2418ee05228dcccc007d76f950:1","implied":0.94,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.94,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1768832742,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":14995.82,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x1ba7b0efee691c7f91625a7326c042370c948b5b19944ef2dde42787c7594cf0:1","id":"trade:0x1ba7b0efee691c7f91625a7326c042370c948b5b19944ef2dde42787c7594cf0:1","implied":0.050000000000000044,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.95,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1768646826,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":33244.965,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x2bfa882f59b7284b7b865480f8f33b945bc121e682088a8f222b3278e1acebc3:1","id":"trade:0x2bfa882f59b7284b7b865480f8f33b945bc121e682088a8f222b3278e1acebc3:1","implied":0.83,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.83,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1768473736,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":22222.42,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x44272ce8b58379241a1f7c84e71d8d0182a22c325cba0c602332a0c38ff64321:1","id":"trade:0x44272ce8b58379241a1f7c84e71d8d0182a22c325cba0c602332a0c38ff64321:1","implied":0.81,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.81,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1768462642,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":12150.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x5a8a9c06d0762c69a6bf78d40ea51e1dafb5d7cb156d462e69c4feecfec30369:1","id":"trade:0x5a8a9c06d0762c69a6bf78d40ea51e1dafb5d7cb156d462e69c4feecfec30369:1","implied":0.20999999999999996,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.79,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1768442320,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":23700.0,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xc16d5607799aad16b4e6bc7fb3c0b306fff936fd0e5c06b0e5ff855d6b7bf3ae:1","id":"trade:0xc16d5607799aad16b4e6bc7fb3c0b306fff936fd0e5c06b0e5ff855d6b7bf3ae:1","implied":0.77,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.77,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1768104656,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":16297.050000000001,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe74ad8cd788758139656a9a72c14d248c8a9b26799217b1305f50baa4a481c45:1","id":"trade:0xe74ad8cd788758139656a9a72c14d248c8a9b26799217b1305f50baa4a481c45:1","implied":0.8,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.8,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1768015300,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?","usd":17860.744000000002,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xb8c1bd306a8a4cedfb280e114e655c5092b3f37edccae05cd877d7f21a5774ce","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xf423ec9c4d7db0058884e914b0908edb24000d822d891ab2a6a3190371307c7e:1","id":"trade:0xf423ec9c4d7db0058884e914b0908edb24000d822d891ab2a6a3190371307c7e:1","implied":0.03300000000000003,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.967,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1768015200,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?","usd":15388.364169999999,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0x8ee2f1640386310eb5e7ffa596ba9335f2d324e303d21b0dfea6998874445791","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xbafd7bfad0956c59b8c6d702ce88cf58f3250dabff072593bf9b2d91cbb10ee8:1","id":"trade:0xbafd7bfad0956c59b8c6d702ce88cf58f3250dabff072593bf9b2d91cbb10ee8:1","implied":0.9849999999999999,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9849999999999999,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1766829563,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?","usd":23980.839549999997,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0x8ee2f1640386310eb5e7ffa596ba9335f2d324e303d21b0dfea6998874445791","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe2918a5103411d98ec00f4acf38897a4ca40b79e41922391bf7d020094105a4d:1","id":"trade:0xe2918a5103411d98ec00f4acf38897a4ca40b79e41922391bf7d020094105a4d:1","implied":0.992,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.992,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1766581847,"title":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?","usd":15385.08672,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xf2ce8d3897ac5009a131637d3575f1f91c579bd08eecce6ae2b2da0f32bbe6f1","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x98a6b1221c8131e0fa32266ed6672786d679701a53184384dfae5ea6b6cd9ed7:1","id":"trade:0x98a6b1221c8131e0fa32266ed6672786d679701a53184384dfae5ea6b6cd9ed7:1","implied":0.006000000000000005,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.994,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1766039426,"title":"Xi Jinping out in 2025?","usd":29889.550180000002,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xf2ce8d3897ac5009a131637d3575f1f91c579bd08eecce6ae2b2da0f32bbe6f1","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xdebddd9d50f5d1b6e3aa5dd6d5c02b11795e3117b195513f7e0ae20298d98090:1","id":"trade:0xdebddd9d50f5d1b6e3aa5dd6d5c02b11795e3117b195513f7e0ae20298d98090:1","implied":0.92,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.92,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1755902776,"title":"Xi Jinping out in 2025?","usd":29295.5232,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"},{"condition_id":"0xf2ce8d3897ac5009a131637d3575f1f91c579bd08eecce6ae2b2da0f32bbe6f1","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xee56203925e6a2b54efd7974070497e34c23b1747aa8838dd1965ee68831dba6:1","id":"trade:0xee56203925e6a2b54efd7974070497e34c23b1747aa8838dd1965ee68831dba6:1","implied":0.9200000000000002,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9200000000000002,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1754514727,"title":"Xi Jinping out in 2025?","usd":11004.3132,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"}],"record":{"called":0,"edge":-0.3673333333333333,"exp_rate":0.3673333333333333,"expected":1.1019999999999999,"hit":0.0,"n":3,"se":0.1499222020471507},"wallet":"0xbdd2bbcbf179cf9b0062b747fbc17755b9b00bd8"}