Yirmeyahu

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +7.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$2,406Yes · avg 84¢ → 91.5¢ · $29.2k Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?−$116Yes · avg 82¢ → 80¢ · $8,077 Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?+$1,188No · avg 79¢ → 93.5¢ · $7,503 Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?+$34Yes · avg 75¢ → 76¢ · $4,977 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?+$409Yes · avg 65¢ → 72¢ · $4,375 Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?−$2,024Yes · avg 3.7¢ → 2.5¢ · $3,938 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$515Yes · avg 55¢ → 66¢ · $3,053 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$161Yes · avg 53¢ → 64¢ · $952

Price-adjusted edge

+7.9 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$34.4k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$13.2k

Last 30 days −$26.6k · $1.47M volume · 1,372 trades · since Sep 03, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$33.3k

Open P&L · 26 positions

−$21.3k

Closed-position win rate

65%

141 closed

Wallet age · markets

781d

164 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+12.0 pts
Politics	1	1	1.0	+3.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$10.0k	88%	201d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$13.8k	0%	207d ago	excluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢	$10.5k	96%	288d ago	called

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called

BUY No @ 88¢$10.0k

LOW Yirmeyahu · 201d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$13.8k

LOW Yirmeyahu · 207d ago

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?called

BUY No @ 96.1¢$10.5k

LOW Yirmeyahu · 288d ago

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